During Thursday's US trading session, gold pared back some of its intraday losses and reclaimed the $4,500 threshold, while US Treasury yields bounced back and the dollar (USD) stabilized following a sharp decline the previous day.

The precious metal touched a high of $4,540.63, completing a rebound from an intraday low of $4,456. On Wednesday, the US Treasury announced an expansion of its long-term debt buyback operations, a move that triggered a surge of more than 4% in gold prices on that single day.

Following the announcement, the 30-year Treasury yield dropped approximately 9 basis points to 5.18%, while the benchmark 10-year yield slipped around 5 basis points to 4.63%. Earlier this week, the 30-year yield had breached 5.30%, reaching its highest level since 2007, and the Treasury's buyback operation provided some breathing room for the bond market.

By Thursday, however, both the 10-year and 30-year yields had climbed back roughly 6 basis points. Analysts cautioned that while the buyback operation can alleviate pressure on the bond market in the short term, it does not address deeper issues such as the massive fiscal deficit, substantial debt issuance, and persistent inflation risks.

Concerns over fiscal vulnerabilities have fueled safe-haven demand for gold, which is viewed as a hedge against government debt expansion and fiscal uncertainty, thereby limiting the downside for prices. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Thursday that the scale of this bond buyback could exceed $4 billion.

Gold's trajectory remains highly sensitive to Federal Reserve monetary policy. Analysts at TD Securities noted: "The Treasury's signal of support for the long end of the curve, coupled with the Fed's tolerance for higher energy prices, is sufficient to underpin gold prices in the near term." However, they also cautioned that a meaningful rally in gold may still require time.

"The market is currently pricing in a rate hike by 2027. Only when there is widespread conviction that the Fed will hold rates steady will gold embark on its next upward leg," they added. According to the CME FedWatch tool, market participants currently assign a 65% probability that the Fed will hold rates unchanged in September, up from just 35% a month ago.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly commented on Thursday: "The rise in bond yields does not constitute a signal for monetary policy adjustment, and the current policy stance is appropriate." She added that short-term yields reflect the market's understanding of the Fed's policy response logic, while emphasizing that the central bank's core mission remains achieving its inflation target.

On the data front, US weekly labor figures lent some support to the dollar. Initial jobless claims fell to 206,000, below the market expectation of 210,000, with the prior reading revised up to 212,000 from an initial 209,000. The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback against six major currencies, traded around 98.80, rebounding from an intraday low of 98.56—its weakest level since May 14.

Technical analysis: Spot gold tests 200-day moving average resistance. On the daily chart, spot gold remains firmly above the 50-day moving average at $4,164.25 and the 100-day moving average at $4,380.03, confirming a clear short-term bullish structure. The current price has rallied to $4,540.63, directly challenging the critical resistance at the 200-day moving average of $4,511.17, with the candlestick having moved above this level but yet to confirm a valid daily closing break.

On the indicator front, the RSI (14) reads 66.43, entering a strong zone but not yet reaching overbought territory. The MACD's DIFF and DEA lines continue to trend upward, with the histogram maintaining positive expansion, indicating sustained upside momentum.

Key price levels to watch: On the upside, a daily close above the 200-day moving average at $4,511.17 would open the path toward the $4,650 resistance level. On the downside, the first support sits at the 100-day moving average of $4,380.03, followed by the 50-day moving average at $4,164.25, with deeper support at the $4,000 psychological level.

Chart history reference: The current rally originated from a low of $3,943.65, while the prior high of $5,419.01 represents significant medium-term resistance.