Abstract

Ferrari NV will report second-quarter 2026 results on July 30, 2026 before-market, with investors watching revenue near EUR 1.88 billion and earnings per share near 2.50 as commentary on model mix, early EV reception, and brand monetization guide sentiment for the rest of the year.

Market Forecast

Forecasts point to second-quarter revenue of EUR 1.88 billion, implying 2.53% year-over-year growth, with adjusted EPS around 2.50, implying 5.68% year-over-year growth; formal gross or net margin forecasts are not disclosed, but recent levels provide a reference point for stability considerations. Within the product lines, model mix and personalization remain the core earnings levers, while orders tied to recent model introductions and early EV interest provide incremental visibility to the back half.

The Automobiles and Components business continues to anchor results through disciplined allocation and pricing, with last quarter revenue of EUR 1.56 billion sustained by special-series allocations and customization attach rates. The Sponsorship, Commercial and Brand line, at EUR 217.92 million last quarter, is positioned to benefit from ongoing brand programs and event-related activation; year-over-year line-item growth was not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

Ferrari NV delivered prior-quarter revenue of EUR 1.85 billion, up 3.18% year over year, with a 51.83% gross profit margin, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of EUR 0.41 billion, a 22.34% net margin, and adjusted EPS of 2.33, up 1.30% year over year. Operationally, EBIT reached EUR 548.00 million, up 1.11% year over year, while revenue exceeded internal estimates by EUR 26.47 million and EPS surpassed estimates by 0.04, reflecting resilient mix and solid demand.

Main business highlights showed Automobiles and Components as the largest revenue contributor at EUR 1.56 billion, supported by allocations and personalization; Sponsorship, Commercial and Brand delivered EUR 217.92 million, with Other at EUR 73.77 million, collectively confirming the breadth of monetization across products and the brand ecosystem even as the mix of new launches evolves.

Current Quarter Outlook

Automobiles and Components

Automobiles and Components remains the central earnings engine this quarter, with forecasts calling for revenue of EUR 1.88 billion at the consolidated level and EPS near 2.50, an outcome that depends materially on the balance of model mix and the continuity of robust allocation discipline. The most sensitive swing factors are the proportion of special-series and V12 allocations in the delivery mix, the attachment rates of high-margin personalization, and any incremental costs associated with early-phase EV-related engineering, integration, and launch activities. Management’s consistent emphasis on value over volume continues to underpin pricing and residuals, and the prior-quarter gross margin of 51.83% provides the performance baseline investors will use to judge incremental progress.

Deliveries of recent model introductions, together with a healthy order book, are expected to drive throughput at stable pricing, while measured production phasing should limit volatility in channel dynamics. On costs, stable commodity inputs and cost absorption trends benefit the near term, but new technology content and R&D intensity can create mild headwinds that require mix and pricing to offset to keep margins near recent ranges. Foreign exchange remains another pivot: a stronger EUR versus key delivery and cost currencies can modestly pressure translated revenue, but the company’s pricing flexibility and hedging can dampen these effects at the operating line.

In the EBIT bridge, investors will be looking for a small year-over-year uplift—estimates embed a roughly 2.48% increase—largely grounded in price/mix and customization, with overhead and R&D investment offsetting some of that expansion. The order cadence reported in recent weeks remains constructive, and with delivery prioritization focused on brand equity and customer lifetime value, the unit trajectory is less critical than the profit per unit and cash conversion path. A crucial marker for this release will be qualitative guidance on the second-half delivery and mix cadence, as it will shape expectations for EPS seasonality and free cash flow timing into the year-end.

Sponsorship, Commercial and Brand

The Sponsorship, Commercial and Brand segment, which booked EUR 217.92 million last quarter, represents a scalable earnings stream with attractive margin characteristics, and it is a logical candidate for incremental operating leverage again this quarter. Brand activation around events and partnerships, licensing programs, experiences, and related merchandise are expected to remain healthy, supported by steady demand from a global customer base that values scarcity and heritage. The June 23, 2026 changes in senior marketing and commercial leadership signal continued attention to monetization quality and the coherence of the brand narrative across platforms.

Given the cost-light nature of much of this revenue, conversions at the operating level tend to be strong, and this is often where incremental beats can accumulate if event calendars and campaigns perform above plan. While line-item year-over-year growth details were not disclosed, momentum remains tied to the cadence of premium experiences and high-touch brand programs that reinforce willingness to pay across the product portfolio. Investors will look for commentary on the pipeline of marquee activations and on the evolution of licensing, fashion, and hospitality initiatives—areas that can smooth revenue seasonality and support gross margin resilience when product mix shifts at the vehicle level.

This quarter’s read-through from this segment will also be interpreted as a barometer for the broader commercial ecosystem as new products enter the portfolio. With broader customer engagement touchpoints and the ability to amplify new model narratives, successful execution here supports order stability, improves cross-sell efficiency for personalization, and ultimately cushions consolidated margin volatility. As long as brand monetization remains aligned with exclusivity principles, the contribution from this line can continue to compound without diluting the core product franchise.

What Will Matter Most for the Stock This Quarter

Three themes are likely to set the tone for the share price reaction: margin commentary versus the prior-quarter baseline, updates on the EV program and early customer response, and any recalibration of full-year guardrails. First, margins are the key scorecard—investors will anchor on the 51.83% gross margin and 22.34% net margin recorded last quarter and test any movement against the narrative around model mix, personalization, and cost initiatives. A steady or gently higher run-rate would be consistent with the EPS forecast implying 5.68% year-over-year growth; a weaker mix or heavier cost absorption, by contrast, would likely prompt adjustments to back-half expectations.

Second, recent headlines around the first fully electric model and associated design debate have kept sentiment active. Market chatter indicates pre-orders are being collected, while management commentary suggests the car’s profile will take time to be fully “digested” by the community. For the quarter at hand, delivery and margin math is unlikely to be materially impacted by early EV dynamics, but qualitative signals will carry weight: order quality, customization opportunities, and the broader technology roadmap. Investors will parse whether the EV program is framed as incremental to the portfolio, preserving pricing power and maintaining scarcity—conditions that sustain the consolidated profit algorithm.

Third, any refinement to full-year color on revenue, margins, and free cash flow cadence will matter. With current-quarter consolidated revenue forecast at EUR 1.88 billion (+2.53% year over year) and EBIT estimated around EUR 570.21 million (+2.48% year over year), the update will inform how much second-half uplift is embedded in the plan. Attention will be paid to whether phasing of special-series deliveries skews toward later quarters, how inventory and working capital are being managed to protect cash conversion, and whether any FX shifts necessitate offsets elsewhere in the P&L. Taken together, clarity on these points should determine whether investors lean toward the EPS trajectory embedded in current forecasts or adjust for a different back-half mix.

Analyst Opinions

The prevailing sell-side stance is bullish, with positive opinions overwhelmingly outnumbering negative takes over the January 1, 2026 to July 23, 2026 window; based on collected items, approximately 90% of referenced notes are constructive versus roughly 10% cautious. Several well-followed institutions reiterated or raised targets within the period: RBC Capital maintained a Buy with a €430 target, Berenberg kept a Buy at €381, J.P. Morgan reaffirmed a Buy at €380, Barclays reiterated a Buy at €360, and BofA Global Research raised its target to €400. Additional commentary from UBS suggested the newly introduced EV aligns with and complements the brand’s positioning, a perspective consistent with the majority view that the program can be additive to both demand and pricing power when staged within the broader allocation strategy.

The bullish consensus is grounded in three pillars. First, the resilience of the earnings model built on allocation discipline, pricing, and personalization is seen as intact. Even with macro and FX variability, analysts expect the company to protect profitability through deliberate mix management and to capture incremental contribution from high-margin options and special-series allocations. The prior quarter’s performance, with revenue up 3.18% year over year and a gross margin above 50%, is used as evidence that the profit algorithm remains durable and that the levers available—pricing, mix, and customization—are sufficient to offset modest cost and currency headwinds.

Second, the top-line outlook embedded in the current-quarter forecast—EUR 1.88 billion revenue, +2.53% year over year, and EPS near 2.50, +5.68% year over year—is viewed by bullish analysts as achievable and potentially conservative if order execution and personalization attach rates remain favorable. Institutions highlighting this angle argue that incremental upside can arise from stronger-than-expected special-series delivery phasing, a richer content mix on core models, and solid performance in Sponsorship, Commercial and Brand. They also emphasize the operating leverage inherent in brand monetization, where even moderate revenue outperformance can translate into attractive contribution given the capital-light nature of the activities.

Third, while debate around the first fully electric model’s aesthetics and positioning surfaced in headlines and drove short-term share price volatility, the majority of analysts interpret the EV’s role as complementary rather than disruptive to the broader portfolio and margin structure. The logic, reflected in recent notes, is that the program will be integrated within the same allocation and scarcity framework that has supported pricing power across the lineup. On this view, initial polarizing reactions are less important than order quality, customization potential, and the cadence of deliveries relative to high-margin internal combustion and hybrid models. As management reinforces that the EV is an addition to the product architecture rather than a volume pivot, bullish analysts see limited risk to the near-term margin profile and potential for incremental demand capture without diluting brand equity.

In weighing these factors, the bullish camp anticipates a steady progression in EBIT—consensus implies roughly 2.48% year-over-year growth this quarter—paired with EPS growth around 5.68% year over year, a combination that would validate the thesis of controlled growth with disciplined profitability. Several institutions stress that the crucial determinant for the stock reaction is not sheer unit growth but the quality of revenue reflected in mix, options, and the brand’s monetization flywheel. As long as commentary on the call supports stability or gradual improvement in these drivers, the majority view expects the shares to react constructively.

Overall, the majority stance centers on confidence in the repeatability of the model and the visibility into the second-half cadence through order books and planned allocations. With multiple Buy ratings reiterated and at least one notable target raised during the period, the institutional bias remains to the upside. This quarter’s print is expected to reinforce that view if revenue lands around EUR 1.88 billion and guidance preserves the balance of exclusivity, pricing, and mix that underpins the profitability trajectory. The focus now is on management’s qualitative color around margins relative to last quarter’s benchmarks, the progress of the EV program within the allocation framework, and the breadth of brand monetization initiatives—all areas where the bullish consensus expects constructive signals.