HSBC's chief economist Paul Bloxham has issued a stark warning on Friday, stating that the situation for global commodity markets is not over and is actually worsening. The world is facing a new wave of supply shocks as multiple maritime chokepoints are simultaneously obstructed, creating what the bank describes as a "super squeeze" on commodities.

HSBC Holdings PLC economist Paul Bloxham warned that with the ongoing escalation of conflict in the Middle East, global commodity markets have re-entered a supply-driven phase. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly ground to a halt, shipping via the Bab el-Mandeb strait remains disrupted, and the situation in the Black Sea has deteriorated further. This triple pressure on critical global trade routes is rapidly increasing supply chain risks for energy, food, and chemical products.

Driven by these supply concerns, international commodity prices have recently strengthened across the board. Brent crude oil briefly breached the $100 per barrel mark, natural gas prices in Europe and Asia have surged over 40% in a single month, wheat prices have hit a three-year high, and refined products like diesel and jet fuel continue to climb.

Simultaneously, major Wall Street institutions including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and RBC Capital Markets have recently raised their oil price forecasts. They suggest that if shipping disruptions persist, global commodity markets could enter a phase of even more dramatic price repricing.

The Crisis in Key Chokepoints Expands the Scope of Supply Shocks

Industry monitoring data shows that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly stopped. Geopolitical turmoil has quickly spread to the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a strategic gateway for Saudi crude oil shipments to Asia and for Eurasian trade transiting the Suez Canal. Concurrently, naval conflicts in the Black Sea have intensified. With multiple critical sea lanes simultaneously compromised, the global commodity supply chain faces systemic pressure, and market doubts about the viability of alternative logistics routes are deepening.

The reason prices did not experience more violent fluctuations in previous months was the proactive release of reserves, including the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. However, the effectiveness of this buffer is rapidly diminishing. As inventories continue to fall, concerns about hitting critical thresholds are rekindled, which could trigger non-linear price spikes. As economist Paul Bloxham noted, "The longer the disruption lasts, the higher the risk of a large, non-linear spike in commodity prices."

Under this acute supply shock scenario, commodity markets are tending to fragment, evolving into isolated local pricing systems. For the same product, price differentials are widening significantly based on delivery location and timing, weakening the reference value of traditional composite benchmarks. Bloxham further warned that drawing down inventories only provides a limited hedging window; the current situation is deteriorating and is far from its peak.

Institutions Raise Forecasts Collectively, Goldman Sachs Warns Brent Could Break $120

Multiple Wall Street institutions have recently intensified their risk warnings for commodity markets. Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, explicitly stated that the current geopolitical conflict has entered a "dangerous phase," with threats to Red Sea shipping and key energy infrastructure expanding. Goldman Sachs strategist Daan Struyven further quantified the potential impact: if the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz persists, Brent crude oil prices could break through $120 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

This expectation is being validated in the end market. The average US national price for regular gasoline has broken back above $4 per gallon, hitting a highly sensitive threshold in the US political system. The rise in energy costs is transmitting from futures markets to consumers, creating real economic and political dual pressures.

However, this shock is far from limited to energy. According to the Bloxham report, urea prices have risen by 13%, wheat prices have hit a three-year high, and prices for jet fuel and diesel are climbing in tandem. Supply constraints are spreading the shockwave through fertilizer, fuel, and food channels into agricultural commodity markets, placing new cost pressures on the global food supply chain.

Bloxham characterizes the current situation as a "super squeeze" and emphasizes that this trend is far from its peak. With generally low inventory levels and multiple key supply channels blocked simultaneously, the market's capacity to buffer against further price shocks has been significantly weakened.

Investors need to be alert to the cascading risks across different categories—from energy to agricultural products, and from industrial raw materials to consumer goods, the price transmission chain is tightening. The duration and intensity of this squeeze will likely depend on the trajectory of geopolitical events and the pace of policy responses, but a fragile short-term configuration is already in place.