Pre-Holiday Whipsaw Expected in A-Shares: Institutions Warn Against Chasing Rallies at Emotional Peaks

Deep News
Sep 22

As short-term capital diverges further on high-volatility plays, the A-share market pulled back in Tuesday afternoon trading, with index gains narrowing noticeably and highlighting rising resistance after consecutive sessions of rebound.

Wall Street's sharp overnight gains initially lifted sentiment across Asian markets. South Korea's KOSPI index opened significantly higher but retreated in the afternoon, creating some disturbance to risk appetite. After several days of repair rally without effective volume expansion, combined with the typical cooling of pre-holiday trading enthusiasm, the market faces renewed volatility in the near term.

By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index settled at 3952.13 points, up 0.06%; the Shenzhen Component Index finished at 13723.74 points, down 0.05%; the ChiNext Index ended at 3399.93 points, up 0.01%; and the STAR 50 Index closed at 1665.04 points, gaining 0.46%. Trading volume continued to expand, with combined turnover across Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reaching 2.15 trillion yuan, up nearly 110 billion yuan from the previous session.

Sector-wise, publishing, cloud services, coal, and communication engineering led the gains, while shipping ports, tourism, ground weaponry, and precious metals ranked among the biggest decliners. As market divergence intensified, individual stock dispersion also widened—nearly 2,400 stocks advanced with 65 hitting the daily limit, while more than 3,000 stocks declined.

Yang Changlong, senior investment advisor at Jufu Investment, said the short-term rhythm disruption does not alter the broader repair trend. The A-share market remains in a phase where policy expectations, industrial catalysts, and valuation recovery work in tandem, and the foundation for a gradually rising index center still holds.

The market continues to display a pattern of upward oscillation and rotational repair. Divergence and pullbacks after consecutive gains represent normal technical digestion, Yang noted. He advised investors to remain patient, pay close attention to rhythm and position management, and avoid over-chasing gains at emotional peaks, given the thinning pre-holiday activity and external market volatility.

China Galaxy Securities pointed out that with both the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays approaching, cross-holiday risk premiums combined with end-of-quarter institutional assessment constraints could keep the market in a range-bound rotational pattern. While the impact of overseas interest rates has marginally weakened among external factors, geopolitical tail risks and energy-driven inflation concerns continue to linger. Meanwhile, positive expectations surrounding China-U.S. exchanges, domestic policy, and technology industry trends are gradually building. The key driver influencing market performance is shifting from partial digestion of external risks toward whether these positive factors can take over as the next catalyst.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should bear the risks associated with their own decisions.

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