Great Wall Fund's Chen Ziyang: Gold Gains Support from Two Key Drivers

Deep News
1 hour ago

On the second day after the National Day holiday, gold prices, which had fallen sharply earlier, rebounded somewhat, with spot gold returning to $4,170, and gold stocks recovering across the board. On the news front, Trump stated that he will not attack Iran before the midterm elections, oil prices surged and then pulled back, and the dollar index retreated. It is worth noting that continued central bank gold purchases are providing ongoing support for gold prices. On October 7, the latest central bank data showed that as of the end of September 2026, China's gold reserves stood at 77.47 million ounces, an increase of 740,000 ounces from 76.73 million ounces at the end of August, marking 23 consecutive months of accumulation. Since the beginning of this year, global central banks have continued to actively increase their gold reserves. A research report from CITIC Securities previously pointed out that gold is transforming from a passive historical legacy on global central bank balance sheets into an actively managed strategic reserve asset. So far this year, gold's trajectory has been full of twists and turns. Is a reversal now in sight? How should investors view gold's future investment potential? Chen Ziyang, fund manager of Great Wall Cyclical Optimization, believes that the current interest rate cycle factor has been largely priced in, and the logic has returned to its hedging attributes. In terms of allocation value, he believes gold has support from two key drivers: first, the interest rate side is not pessimistic: rate hikes do not mean the Fed has entered a new hiking cycle. Judging from the drivers of the U.S. economy as well as inflation and employment, there is no basis for launching a new rate hike cycle, and the follow-up will track the decline in inflation and the sustainability of AI capital expenditure. Second, there is a catalyst on the U.S. Treasury credit side: long-end U.S. Treasury yields have hit new highs, and U.S. government interest payments on Treasury debt have exceeded defense spending, intensifying market concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt and the credibility of the dollar, and gold is expected to further price in the U.S. Treasury credit logic going forward. Regarding industrial metals, Chen Ziyang stated that although current profitability is already at a relatively high level, copper supply in the first half of the year actually declined rather than increased, constrained by multiple factors including geopolitical disruptions and the long-term lack of exploration investment, and supply-side incremental growth remains limited. Aluminum, meanwhile, is more subject to policy controls, with the domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity ceiling currently difficult to break through, and the uncertainty of overseas capacity substitution is relatively large. As for strategic minor metals such as tungsten, tantalum and tin, he believes that driven by AI investment, they offer relatively good long-term investment opportunities. The chemicals sector has basically reached the bottom of its capacity cycle, and Chen Ziyang stated that many sub-sectors will present investment opportunities in the future. Current focus includes refining and chemicals, refrigerants, phosphorus and potash, as well as the more rigid-demand fiber segment. In addition, he believes that sub-sectors such as shipping and coal are also worth actively watching. Disclaimer: The information contained in this communication comes from sources the company considers reliable and from the personal judgment of researchers, but the company makes no direct or implied representation or guarantee as to its accuracy or completeness. This communication is not a complete statement or summary of the relevant securities or markets, and any opinions expressed may change without further notice. This communication should not be accepted by recipients as a substitute for their own independent judgment or as a basis for investment decisions. The company or its related institutions, employees or agents shall not be liable for any person's use of all or part of this content or any losses arising therefrom. Without the prior written permission of Great Wall Fund Management Co., Ltd., no person may distribute, copy, reproduce or publish this report or any part of it in any form, and no abridgment or modification of this communication contrary to its original meaning may be made. The fund manager reminds that every citizen has the obligation and right to report money laundering crimes. Every citizen should strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations on anti-money laundering. Investing requires caution. Sina's major cooperative platform for futures account opening is safe, fast and secure.

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