Markets are bracing for a dual test this week as traders weigh a key inflation gauge against the first major public address from the new Fed Chair. Federal Reserve Chair Warsh is scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole global central bank symposium, marking his debut appearance since taking office in May. Any hawkish clarification regarding anti-inflation credibility may offer only limited support to the U.S. dollar, while a failure to address the credibility question could exert considerably more downward pressure on the currency.
Beyond Warsh's remarks, the U.S. core PCE price index stands out as a critical data point for the week. Monday, August 24th, sets the stage, but the real focus falls on Friday, August 28th, when the Jackson Hole symposium convenes with speeches from both Powell and Warsh. The market is seeking clarity on two fronts: the Fed's current stance on a September rate hike (viewing the minutes as a backward look and the symposium as a forward guide), and the next steps in the policy path. With the minutes now digested, there are no fresh catalysts in the near term, leaving gold prices likely to churn within a high-level range.
Geopolitical tensions continue to simmer in the background, with the U.S.-Iran standoff persisting in the Strait of Hormuz. Adding to the mix, the U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on select Canadian goods, prompting Ottawa to announce retaliatory measures in September. Additionally, former President Trump has signaled that details of the "harshest sanctions on Iran" will be released on Monday. Individually, these factors are unlikely to ignite a gold rally, but combined with the overarching theme of dollar credit depreciation, they encourage safe-haven buyers to maintain their positions a while longer.
From a technical perspective, gold's brief dip to 4600 and subsequent rebound at the Asian open suggests stable market sentiment, though some emotional buying is evident. Whether this momentum can hold through the European and U.S. sessions remains uncertain. On the upside, immediate attention is on the hourly chart's upper range boundary at 4650-55; a decisive break above this level could pave the way toward 4700. On the downside, support is initially seen at 4605-00, with a break below potentially triggering a pullback toward the 4560-40 zone.
In summary, the fiscal buyback program propelled gold to 4600, but with overbought conditions, Warsh yet to speak, and PCE data pending, the market is opting to hold its breath and consolidate, awaiting Friday's directional cue. The news flow leans bullish but lacks urgency, and while the technical backdrop is constructive, a corrective pullback remains possible. The prudent approach is to wait for a dip to 4560 to initiate longs rather than chasing strength at 4640. The direction appears clear, but maintaining proper timing is essential. This week is likely to be a grinding session, so traders should keep positions light and patiently await signals.
For intraday trading, the recommendation is: Sell gold at 4645-4640 with a stop loss at 4655, targeting 4600-4580. Should the price break above 4660, pivot to buying on pullbacks, with a target of 4700. Key economic data and events to watch today, Monday, August 24, 2026: The U.S. is expected to outline specific actions regarding increased sanctions on Iran. This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should act at their own risk.