Abstract

Agree Realty will report fiscal second-quarter results on July 30, 2026 Post Market. This preview summarizes the market’s expectations for revenue, profitability, and adjusted EPS, contrasts them with last quarter’s performance, and highlights the key business drivers and risks to watch in the near term.

Market Forecast

Consensus points to revenue of 201.93 million US dollars for the current quarter, implying 18.08% year-over-year growth, with EBIT estimated at 102.63 million US dollars and adjusted EPS projected at 0.47, up 4.85% year over year. Street models imply a stable to slightly higher margin framework compared with recent run rates, with revenue driven primarily by rental income and modest external growth. The company’s main business is rental income, which the market expects to remain the dominant revenue contributor with steady same-store trends and incremental lease-up benefits. Among operating lines, rental income remains the most promising near-term driver at an estimated 201.93 million US dollars, consistent with the revenue guidance, implying 18.08% growth year over year.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Agree Realty reported revenue of 200.81 million US dollars, a gross profit margin of 87.60%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 62.05 million US dollars, a net profit margin of 30.90%, and adjusted EPS of 0.50, with year-over-year growth of 18.71% in revenue and 19.05% in EPS. The company delivered quarter-on-quarter net profit growth of 10.73%, reflecting continued accretive acquisitions and operating efficiency. Main business performance was concentrated in rental income at 200.68 million US dollars, underscoring the portfolio’s lease stability and the business model’s reliance on contracted rents.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Net lease rental income

Rental income is expected to remain the anchor of top-line growth in the current quarter, supported by the company’s long-duration leases and embedded contractual escalators. The 18.08% year-over-year revenue forecast suggests continued scaling from acquisitions, developments, and steady occupancy, with minimal reliance on non-core income streams. Margin carryover from the prior quarter’s 87.60% gross profit margin and 30.90% net margin provides a favorable baseline, though interest expense trends and timing of asset deliveries will influence conversion to EPS. The company’s portfolio mix typically emphasizes necessity-based retail tenants, which tends to mitigate cyclicality; as such, revenue visibility is high, and quarterly volatility is more likely to be driven by transaction timing than tenant health.

Most promising business: Portfolio expansion via acquisitions and development

The forecasted revenue and EBIT growth profiles indicate that external growth remains the primary catalyst for earnings expansion. The EBIT run-rate implied by consensus (102.63 million US dollars) aligns with incremental NOI contribution from recently acquired and stabilized assets. Assuming cap rate discipline and adherence to conservative underwriting, new investments should add to cash flow with minimal dilution, keeping adjusted EPS growth positive at an expected 4.85% year over year despite higher financing costs. The company’s development pipeline, though smaller than acquisitions in revenue contribution, can add higher spread opportunities as projects stabilize, reinforcing blended margin resilience.

Key stock price drivers this quarter

- Capital costs and balance sheet deployment: With adjusted EPS growth forecast at 4.85% year over year, sensitivity to financing costs is a central variable. Any reduction in benchmark rates or enhanced access to attractively priced capital could improve spread economics, while a tighter market would challenge incremental accretion. - Lease stability and credit updates: Given the concentration in rental income, any tenant-specific developments or lease restructurings can shift sentiment even if headline revenue growth remains intact. Visibility into renewals, rent escalations, and occupancy should support confidence in the 18.08% revenue growth outlook. - Transaction cadence and pipeline conversion: The timing of acquisitions and development deliveries can create intra-quarter noise around run-rate revenue and EBIT. Clarity on closing schedules and stabilization milestones will help the market gauge whether the current-quarter EPS target of 0.47 is conservative or achievable.

Analyst Opinions

Analyst commentary aggregated over the past six months skews positive on the near-term earnings setup, with a majority leaning bullish versus bearish. The prevailing view emphasizes steady rental cash flows, a robust external growth engine, and manageable funding needs as drivers of sustained revenue and EBIT growth. Well-followed research desks note that the company’s focus on necessity-oriented tenants and long-dated leases underpins the forecasted 18.08% revenue increase and supports the modest 4.85% advance in adjusted EPS despite financing headwinds. The bull case also highlights the prior quarter’s outperformance against estimates and the 10.73% sequential increase in net profit, arguing that operational momentum should carry into the current print.