On April 14, data released by the National Association of Realtors showed that existing home sales fell by 3.6% month-on-month in March, with an annualized sales volume of 3.98 million units, falling short of market expectations. The report indicated a broad decline in signed contracts across all regions of the United States. Sales in the Northeast dropped to their lowest level since records began in 1999, while the Midwest recorded its weakest performance since 2011. Analysts suggest that spillover effects from the Middle East conflict are beginning to impact the U.S. economy. As tensions between the Trump administration and Iran escalate, rising energy prices have pushed mortgage rates significantly higher, further increasing home purchasing costs and dampening potential demand. Concurrently, the National Association of Realtors has sharply revised down its growth forecast for existing home sales in 2026 from a previous estimate of 14% to just 4%. The chief economist of the association noted that rising mortgage rates were the primary reason for the adjustment. On pricing, the median price for existing homes rose 1.4% year-on-year to $408,800, indicating that prices remain somewhat supported amid ongoing tight supply. Inventory levels for existing homes climbed to a four-month high but overall remain at historically low levels.

Meanwhile, Pantheon Macroeconomics stated that despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty, the UK labor market remained stable in March. According to a recent report by a UK professional employment research agency, the decline in permanent job placements was the mildest since March 2023. Additionally, the data for this report was collected between March 12 and March 25, a period preceding the preliminary ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, which may provide some lift to market sentiment. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions could still exert pressure on the labor market. Given that the Middle East conflict is unlikely to be resolved quickly and energy prices may remain elevated for an extended period, hiring activity is expected to stay subdued in the coming months.

Key data to watch today include Germany’s March wholesale price index annual rate, the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March, and the U.S. Producer Price Index annual rate for March.

**USD Index** The U.S. dollar index opened higher with a gap yesterday but subsequently retreated, closing slightly lower for the day. It is currently trading around 98.30. The breakdown of Middle East negotiations initially spurred safe-haven demand, pushing the index above the 99.00 level. However, the rally was short-lived as expectations for a potential resolution to the negotiations led the index to pare gains and end the session in negative territory. Additionally, weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data released during the session exerted some downward pressure. Resistance is seen near 98.80 today, with support around 97.80.

**EUR/USD** The euro edged higher yesterday, reaching a six-week high, and is currently trading around 1.1760. The primary support came from a softer U.S. dollar, which weakened due to disappointing economic data and renewed hopes for a resolution in Middle East talks. Furthermore, continued positive sentiment from recently strong eurozone economic data and expectations for European Central Bank rate hikes also provided underlying support. Resistance is anticipated near 1.1850 today, while support lies around 1.1650.

**GBP/USD** The British pound advanced yesterday, breaking through the 1.3500 level to hit a seven-week high. It is currently trading near 1.3510. The main driver was a retreat in the U.S. dollar, which fell under pressure from weak economic indicators and renewed optimism regarding Middle East negotiations. Nonetheless, diminishing expectations for further interest rate hikes from the Bank of England limited the pair's upward momentum. Resistance is seen near 1.3600 today, with support around 1.3400.