Following the implementation of new regulations, how has the scale of lending facilitation platforms fluctuated? Industry insights indicate that several previously fast-growing lending facilitators have significantly contracted their operations. Preliminary statistics up to January 2026 show the scale data for some platforms. Due to information disparities and non-uniform data reporting standards across the lending facilitation industry, coupled with questionable data authenticity released by many institutions amid market volatility, the above figures should be considered for reference only.
An analysis of data from several rapidly expanding platforms reveals that small and medium-sized lending facilitators are currently experiencing substantial scale fluctuations, particularly with the decline in loan disbursement volume being greater than the decrease in outstanding loan balances. However, such sharp contractions are not expected to be the norm. It is anticipated that after the mid-March period, the overall disbursement volume of some institutions may gradually stabilize, with outstanding balances potentially ceasing their decline by mid-year or the second half of the year.
Behind these scale fluctuations, the lending facilitation industry faces pressures from policy changes and business model transitions. Related industry trends and risk appetites of funding institutions are also adjusting accordingly.
**Trend 1: Decline in Consumer Loans, Growth in Business Loans** From September 2025 to January 2026, following the new regulations, the scale of consumer credit nationwide with maturities under one year decreased by approximately 402 billion yuan. This contraction is equivalent to roughly 30% of the total assets of all 31 licensed consumer finance companies in China, or comparable to the scale of ten mid-sized lending facilitation platforms each holding 30-40 billion yuan in assets. This shrinkage is directly observable in the operational data of multiple lending facilitators.
While short-term consumer loans have experienced volatile declines, the scale of long-term consumer loans has remained relatively stable. On a positive note, the personal business loan market has maintained a growth trajectory, particularly for loans with terms exceeding one year.
The policy adjustments by licensed consumer finance companies, who are key funding partners for lending facilitators and core participants in the consumer credit market, significantly influence the changes in short-term consumer loan balances. It is understood that the licensed consumer finance industry will further adjust its business focus and structure. Potential directions include lowering the comprehensive customer interest rate to 20%, increasing the proportion of direct lending operations, and reducing reliance on guarantee services.
**Trend 2: New Requirements for Consumer Finance: Boost Direct Lending, Reduce Guarantees** New trends bring new challenges and necessitate new plans. Where are the pricing, lending facilitation, and guarantee businesses of licensed consumer finance companies headed in the next two years? Sources within licensed consumer finance companies reveal that after recent discussions and research, their companies' new directives and internal targets for the year are as follows: using the proportion of lending facilitation business as of December 31, 2025, as a ceiling, they will continue to reduce the share of guarantee business in 2026. Specific targets include ensuring the guarantee business proportion does not exceed 35% by December 31, 2026, and further reducing it to no more than 25% by December 31, 2027.
Concurrently, they aim to continuously increase the proportion of direct lending and self-risk-bearing businesses, striving for these to account for over 5% by December 31, 2026, and aiming to keep lending facilitation-related business below 50%. A point of focus within the direct lending requirements is whether lending facilitation business conducted via API integration, with profit sharing based on fees actually collected, can still be classified as direct lending. Some institutions categorize this as self-risk-bearing business, falling under the broader umbrella of lending facilitation.
The mainstream criteria for defining direct lending business for consumer finance companies are relatively straightforward. For online loans, the funding institution's product or brand must be directly exposed to the customer, not merely integrated via API through another credit product. A customer click should redirect to the consumer finance company's H5 page or its proprietary app for it to count as direct lending. For offline loans, applications made through offline channels for the consumer finance company's loan products are classified as direct lending.
The push for consumer finance companies to increase direct lending and self-risk-bearing business while reducing guarantee business, though not uniformly applied by all institutions, reflects a consistent industry direction. This includes adjusting business structures and lowering the average customer interest rate to 20%. Beyond consumer finance companies, some banking professionals have also disclosed conducting stress tests related to interest rates in the "12% to 18%" range to cope with industry-wide interest rate downward pressure. These tests, combined with assessments of credit risk changes, evaluate fluctuations in capital adequacy ratios, liquidity coverage ratios (LCR), and economic value of equity (EVE) under mild, moderate, and severe stress scenarios to ensure compliance with internal risk appetites and regulatory requirements.
**Trend 3: Weaker Platforms Exit as Risk is Cleared** It is understood that some smaller, tail-end platforms in the lending facilitation industry have already exited the market due to delays in interest rate compliance adjustments, operational non-compliance, and concentrated customer complaints, leading funding partners to gradually withdraw. Several platforms engaged in e-commerce mall businesses have also significantly scaled down due to compliance issues.
Since the second half of 2025, a challenging environment and overall tightening of credit liquidity have placed significant pressure on the consumer finance market, leading to asset scale contraction for many institutions and increased risk in cooperative lending businesses. The industry is undergoing a continuous process of risk asset clearance. While the new lending facilitation regulations set the tone for long-term industry development, they have also prompted a market shake-up.
Although the overall industry scale for lending facilitation and guarantee services has declined post-regulation, many consumer finance institutions and private banks still maintain a significant reliance on lending facilitation business. Consequently, recent rumors about further tightening of the scale of lending facilitation business and the proportion of credit enhancement business for consumer finance companies are not surprising. This direction is consistent with previous requirements imposed on the trust industry's lending facilitation activities, showing continuity and uniformity in the regulatory adjustment across different types of institutions.
However, as lending facilitation supervision deepens and risk bubbles gradually deflate, risks within the consumer finance industry are expected to improve. A senior industry professional noted that based on the latest cooperative data from January to March 2026, early-stage asset risks for several major lending facilitation partners have begun to decline. Although risks remain relatively high, the trend is showing signs of improvement. The long-term outlook is towards health, but short-term pressures persist.
Information from platform operators indicates that many lending facilitators face challenges in generating quality assets, with the decline in new loan facilitation amounts exceeding the drop in outstanding balances. Profitability has become highly volatile, with some institutions reporting monthly losses. Overall industry risk continues to be cleared. Additionally, some lending facilitators with their own traffic sources have begun implementing stricter controls over their partner institutions. Industry participants frankly state, "If funding partners are unwilling to accept certain risks, we also face difficulties in doing so." Currently, lending platforms are adopting a cautious and slow-paced approach.
High-priced lending facilitation business (APR 24%+) and capital-intensive, fully-guaranteed facilitation services have contracted significantly. Conversely, "light-asset distribution" models, small and micro-business services, large low-interest loans, auto and mortgage loans, and joint risk operation businesses have expanded noticeably.
Finally, the phased adjustment in the lending facilitation industry is not only closely related to regulatory policies but also connected to specific industry events like the mid-March consumer rights period. Attitudes towards this year's event vary significantly among institutions, primarily falling into two categories: First, if the impact is minimal, they plan to quickly stabilize operations, intensify marketing for lower-priced clients and overdue collections, expand business scope, and diversify service offerings. Second, if the impact is significant, compliance will take priority, focusing on preventing issues highlighted in exposed cases, avoiding potential regulatory violations, and steering clear of high-risk institutions and business models identified.
Persistent compliance issues within lending facilitation and loan supermarket businesses, such as offline A-B loan intermediary referrals, misleading marketing using membership benefits, non-transparent annual percentage rates (APR), and high-premium mall instalment plans that inflate financing costs, remain key compliance focus areas for 2026. In response, many leading lending facilitation platforms have prepared. On one hand, they are continuously adjusting risk management practices to reduce exposure, including prioritizing higher-quality customer segments and optimizing customer acquisition channels. On the other hand, they are implementing refined post-lending customer segmentation, applying different collection strategies based on risk profiles and delinquency stages, aiming to improve asset quality and usher in a new dawn for the lending facilitation industry.