China's top economic planner and energy authority have jointly released the 15th Five-Year Plan for the coal industry, setting a clear target to establish a modern coal industrial system by 2030. The announcement comes as coking coal prices have shown notable momentum recently.

According to data from commodity tracking firm生意社, the price of coking coal stood at 1,923.75 yuan per tonne on August 18, marking a 23.42% increase compared to May 18. In the futures market, the main coking coal contract for 2701 has climbed 18.99% since the start of August.

On the demand side, the first half of this year saw sustained robust growth in national electricity consumption. Rapid expansion in computing power, charging and battery-swapping infrastructure, combined with persistent heatwaves, has accelerated overall power usage growth across the country.

Data compiled by Securities Times' DataBao shows that as of August 20, 22 coal-listed companies had released interim performance announcements for the 2026 fiscal year. Based on net profit figures from half-year reports and lower bounds of earnings guidance, three companies have turned losses into profits, six have narrowed their losses year-on-year, and six have achieved net profit growth, with nearly 70% of reporting companies delivering positive results.

Safety supervision in the coal mining sector remains stringent nationwide, with inspections continuing at elevated intensity. Month-end production halts continue to constrain output volumes. Last week, Shanxi province saw production suspensions totaling 55.9 million tonnes. Combined with ongoing rectification campaigns in key production areas such as Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, capacity utilization rates remain subdued.

Analysts at Zheshang Securities point out that given current sector capital flows and fundamental conditions, they maintain a positive long-term outlook for coal valuation recovery. Following the full clearing of pessimistic positions in previous periods, the three major concerns—overcapacity, high-carbon asset impairments, and safety incidents—have all been addressed through policy measures. This suggests limited downside risk for the sector, with multiple catalysts supporting sustained upward momentum.

Guotai Haitong's research report indicates that the coal industry's focus is shifting toward supply quality improvement and supply security resilience. On the demand front, the policy framework envisions coal consumption peaking with a soft landing on a high plateau, explicitly rejecting any abrupt reduction in coal usage. This ensures resilient demand fundamentals. Over the medium to long term, this supports coal prices maintaining a reasonable-to-firm range, enhancing earnings certainty for coal enterprises.

Hong Kong-listed coal stocks relevant to this theme include Shougang Resources (00639), Force Development (01277), China Shenhua (01088), China Coal Energy (01898), Yankuang Energy (01171), Yancoal Australia (03668), Mongolian Mining (00975), and China Qinfa (00866).