China Securities Co., Ltd. released a research report noting a dense week of catalysts for the automotive sector. As major automakers begin disclosing July production, sales, and delivery data, the export chain once again exceeded expectations comprehensively. This week sees the intensive launch of HarmonyOS luxury cars, with structural alpha shifting towards the export and high-end chains during the domestic demand off-season. Unitree Robotics has officially set its IPO price at 150.8 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 61 billion yuan, a 45% upward revision from its original fundraising plan. Coupled with Tesla's clear production timeline for the Optimus line this year and the upcoming World Robot Conference on August 19th, August is shaping up to be a dense window for robot "mass production verification and capitalization." In the commercial vehicle sector, the second quarter defied the off-season trend, with earnings releases pending, and the logic of dual growth in earnings and valuations for leading companies continues.

Passenger vehicles: Early-month data from automakers on production, sales, and deliveries continues to show the pattern of "domestic demand under pressure in the off-season, but exports strong and exceeding expectations." The China Passenger Car Association estimates July retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles at around 1.52 million units, with new energy vehicle retail sales of about 980,000 units, achieving a record monthly penetration rate of 64.5%. General Administration of Customs data on August 7th showed a 71.2% year-on-year increase in electric vehicle exports for the first seven months. The export sector is showing strong highlights: BYD sold 419,000 vehicles in July (+21.8%), including 179,800 overseas (+124.3%). Chery Group sold 277,000 vehicles (+23.3%), becoming the first Chinese automaker to export over 200,000 vehicles in a single month. Geely sold 250,000 vehicles, marking its fifth consecutive month of year-on-year and month-on-month growth, with exports reaching 106,700 units, a 202% year-on-year increase and a new record. This week, the Zunjie V680/V800 officially launched, and the Xiangjie G9 began pre-sales. The Zunjie V680/V800 received 2,115 firm orders within one hour of launch (1,000 for the S800), and 3,500 within 24 hours, with 70% being high-spec versions (1,600 for the S800). The Xiangjie G9 received 5,100 orders within two hours of pre-sales, and 10,300 within 24 hours, with 90% for high-spec versions. The order quality is strong, and the market awaits September delivery data. The firm maintains its view that pessimistic expectations for domestic demand have been fully priced in. August enters the mid-report season, where Q2 earnings results and the outlook starting from Q3 will determine the sustainability of the market trend. Structural alpha continues to favor the export chain exceeding expectations for passenger cars and the accelerated ramp-up of high-end new energy vehicles. Valuation room is seen in the physical AI reshaping the growth paradigm.

Commercial vehicles: The current moment is a good one to focus on investment opportunities in undervalued, strong-earnings leading companies. In the heavy-duty truck sector, Weichai is favored as a leader in the AI power shortage theme. Since late July, its AI power business has seen dense catalysts, including a major North American customer, GNRC, raising its order scale, and the acceleration of SOFC business commercialization in Europe. Mid-report earnings are expected to be solid. In July, heavy-duty truck exports maintained around 40% high growth, with Sinotruk's exports likely to remain at historically high levels, supporting its own valuation recovery. In the bus sector, considering the significant easing of risks like China-Europe trade tensions, the underlying logic of high export growth and low domestic inventory remains unchanged. The recent 20% pullback in the commercial vehicle sector after a strong rally presents a phased low allocation opportunity. It is recommended to focus on Yutong Bus, which benefits from both domestic and overseas structural growth, and Weichai, which is a key player in the dual themes of AI power and heavy-duty trucks.

Physical AI: 1) The robot theme is seeing dual catalysts materialize with "mass production pace and capitalization." Unitree Robotics has set its IPO price at 150.8 yuan per share and a market cap of 61 billion yuan, a 45% upward revision from its original plan. Its strategic placement list features a strong combination of "technology partners, industrial giants, and national funds," which is a positive surprise. The significance is twofold: first, it sets a valuation benchmark for the embodied intelligence track; second, post-listing, it is expected to guide capital covering the entire chain of algorithms, machine manufacturing, core components, and scenario operations, strengthening the leading role and accelerating industrial synergy. Current market expectations for the robot sector are relatively low, but according to industry supply chain research, Optimus mass production is already underway. The robot industry, which has been fermenting for 4-5 years, is likely facing an inflection point. Domestic catalysts are also accelerating, with domestic robot mass production and scenario verification picking up pace concurrently. Therefore, the investment strategy emphasizes long-term allocation, buying on dips, and focusing on core stocks. It is recommended to consider allocation value in stocks focused on the Tesla chain with high success rates, directions for technology iteration and upgrades, and undervalued stocks with expectations gaps. 2) The smart driving sector is approaching core catalysts. This month, Amazon's Zoox received NHTSA approval to operate paid, driverless vehicles without steering wheels or pedals in Las Vegas. On August 4th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the first mandatory national standard for L3/L4 autonomous driving, set to take effect on July 1, 2027, applicable to M and N class vehicles. The new regulation will push the industry to accelerate product standardization. The medium-to-long-term trend of smart driving progressing towards higher levels remains clear, with a bullish outlook for incremental components and solution providers under the L3/L4 industry trend.