Cubic Analytics founder Caleb Franzen has completely reversed his prior bearish stance on a podcast, lifting his Bitcoin (BTC) price target to $205,000 in a fundamental shift from pessimism to optimism. This strategic pivot stems from a dual technical signal that emerged in late August, thoroughly correcting the bearish expectations formed when BTC fell below $97,000 in November of last year.
Data shows that on August 21, BTC successfully broke above its 200-day moving average, a breakout Franzen views as the key inflection point distinguishing it from failed attempts in May and January. Alongside momentum that pushed the weekly gain above 20%, the 21-day simple moving average climbed above the 200-day line, forming a rare golden cross that has occurred only eight times since 2020. Historical statistics indicate such patterns typically deliver potential returns of 33% over three months, 43.4% over six months, and 153% over one year.
The precondition for maintaining this bullish thesis is that BTC holds the 200-day moving average zone between $71,730 and $75,135, with the forecast invalidated if price falls below $71,000. In the optimistic scenario, price would fluctuate within a range of $142,000 to $205,000, with $126,000 serving as the first resistance level.
Franzen is adopting a gradual stock-buying strategy. Despite strong performance from Chainlink (LINK), Solana (SOL), Hyperliquid (HYPE), and Binance Coin (BNB), he refuses to blindly rotate into altcoins, instead focusing on a recovery opportunity in Ethereum (ETH) between $2,126 and $2,295, applying the same 200-day moving average analytical framework.
On the macro front, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index indicates recent data has outperformed expectations, while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model projects third-quarter real GDP growth of 3.5%. Although below the previous 5% estimate, this remains a strong level. Such an economic growth environment drives bond yields higher and sustains market risk appetite, providing favorable support for both Bitcoin and equity markets. This marks the second instance of macro fundamentals offering substantive endorsement for the crypto bull narrative, following the technical confirmation of the golden cross.