A survey of the agricultural input market across multiple regions reveals a period of seasonal lull, with stakeholders awaiting the start of the corn fertilizer season. Interviews with industry participants in parts of Henan, Shandong, Liaoning, and Anhui indicate a recent slight uptick in urea prices. Compound fertilizer prices remain high and stable, yet sales at the retail level are sluggish. Looking ahead, distributors are generally adopting a cautious, wait-and-see approach, implementing a conservative strategy of "replenishing stock as they sell" to mitigate risk. A combination of factors, including persistently low grain prices, extreme weather events, and rising cultivation costs, has led farmers to adopt a "cost-covering" approach to investment, resulting in low enthusiasm for purchasing fertilizer.

Henan Province, Anyang City: Corn fertilizer sales have commenced. The primary crops are wheat and corn, with cash crops including garlic, peanuts, and chili peppers. Wheat harvest is currently underway, and in areas where it finished early, summer corn planting has begun. The fertilizer market is entering the corn fertilizer sales season, while demand for cash crop fertilizer is in a low period. Urea ex-factory prices are around 1,900 yuan per ton, having increased slightly by a few dozen yuan in the short term, though market demand remains weak. For corn fertilizer, 40% functional controlled-release fertilizer is priced at approximately 2,560 yuan ex-factory, retailing around 2,800 yuan, with prices recently consolidating at high levels. Additionally, 38% medium-chlorine functional fertilizer ex-factory prices range from 2,300 to 2,400 yuan, retailing around 2,600 yuan. For cash crop fertilizers, distributors are focusing on reducing existing inventory. 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer (15-15-15) is around 3,300 yuan ex-factory, retailing near 3,700 yuan. 51% sulfur-based compound fertilizer (17-17-17) is about 4,100 yuan ex-factory. 30% functional organic-inorganic compound fertilizer ranges from 2,850 to 2,900 yuan ex-factory. Regarding diammonium phosphate, long-term high raw material sulfur prices have led to severe production cost inversion, causing price increases. 64% diammonium phosphate is around 4,300 yuan ex-factory. On inventory and market outlook, the interviewed distributor currently holds about 100 tons of fertilizer stock. For the upcoming corn fertilizer peak season, he is employing a relatively prudent strategy of "replenishing as he sells." He also noted that the future price trend for corn fertilizer remains unclear and difficult to predict. In seed sales, recent overall sales have been mediocre. He primarily represents corn varieties with characteristics like white axis and high-density tolerance. To diversify his product line and meet market demand, he is actively engaging with seed companies to understand and introduce other types of corn seeds.

Shandong Province, Liaocheng City, Shen County: Fertilizer purchase willingness is low. As the "Top Vegetable County in China," the local agricultural structure is dominated by vegetables. According to an interviewed agricultural technician, the county's vegetable planting area reaches 980,000 mu, with an annual output of about 7 million tons. Melon cultivation is significant, with an annual output of up to 1.71 billion jin, making it one of the most concentrated melon-producing areas nationally. Besides vegetables, field crops like wheat and corn are also grown. Wheat harvest is currently in progress, expected to conclude by June 15th, followed by summer corn planting. Recent fertilizer market demand is weak, overall in a seasonal lull. Urea ex-factory prices are around 1,930 yuan, with limited downstream procurement. Compound fertilizer prices remain high: 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer is 3,300-3,500 yuan ex-factory; 45% chlorine-based compound fertilizer is about 2,800 yuan ex-factory; 40% high-nitrogen corn fertilizer is quoted around 2,200 yuan. Additionally, 73% industrial monoammonium phosphate is 7,450-7,500 yuan ex-factory. Regarding upcoming summer corn fertilizer demand, the technician expressed pessimism about both overall demand and price expectations. Currently, influenced by low grain prices, farmers have low willingness to invest in corn base fertilizer, commonly adopting a conservative strategy of "using whatever is cheapest." This has made cheap fertilizers like ammonium bicarbonate the first choice, while the use of conventional high-nitrogen compound fertilizer has significantly decreased, with some farmers even skipping fertilization entirely. "For vegetable fertilizers, the ex-factory price difference for bulk element water-soluble fertilizers is large, varying by two to three thousand yuan per ton, mainly depending on the raw materials," the technician stated. Water-soluble fertilizers using potassium sulfate as a potassium source have relatively lower costs, while those using potassium nitrate or monopotassium phosphate are significantly more expensive. Among them, the monopotassium phosphate type offers the best solubility and is weakly acidic, giving it wider applicability. Therefore, selecting water-soluble fertilizers should not rely solely on NPK content but also consider the source and quality of raw materials. The technician noted the current fertilizer market is in a stalemate where "the higher the price, the less people want it." Farmers are waiting for price drops, causing existing inventory to stagnate and many production enterprises to operate at half capacity. Simultaneously, previously stockpiled low-price inventory is also unsold, primarily because low agricultural product prices have severely dampened farmers' planting enthusiasm. In some vegetable-producing areas, many farmers have accumulated fertilizer stock at home. In the past, when vegetable prices were acceptable, farmers were selective about fertilizer quality. Now, to save costs, they no longer distinguish between good and poor efficacy, just wanting to use up their home inventory, showing low willingness to purchase new, high-quality fertilizer. The technician further pointed out that while cost-side support may prevent significant fertilizer price declines later, positive changes are occurring in end-user fertilization practices. To save costs, more vegetable farmers are abandoning traditional flood irrigation in favor of drip irrigation. This change not only reduces waste of fully water-soluble fertilizers but also significantly improves fertilizer utilization efficiency. Currently, cash crop farmers' planting enthusiasm is severely impacted, mainly due to extremely low purchase prices. Taking melons as an example, the highest purchase price in previous years could reach 14 yuan per kilogram, while this year's price is only 0.6 yuan. Due to farming losses, some farmers choose not to fertilize or switch to cheap fertilizers, with some even opting to seek work elsewhere. In major vegetable-producing counties like Shen County, the agricultural input market is undergoing a profound structural transformation. The technician indicated that with long-term excessive use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, drawbacks like soil-borne disease resistance and soaring pesticide costs for farmers are becoming apparent. Farmers' mindset is gradually shifting from reliance on chemical inputs towards green, functional inputs. On one hand, market acceptance of functional special fertilizers like microbial agents is increasing. Farmers are beginning to prefer purchasing functional products that can improve the taste of agricultural produce, seeking high-quality fruits and vegetables that recall childhood flavors. Bulk element water-soluble fertilizers have gradually become commonplace, while medium and trace element fertilizers are becoming a new focus. On the other hand, traditional chemical pesticides have seen control costs surge due to increased resistance from continuous use, prompting a shift in plant protection philosophy from treatment-focused to prevention-focused, further highlighting the value of biological products in enhancing crop stress resistance. The technician also noted that the local agricultural input market currently faces severe "involution" and a trust crisis. The market is flooded with "pseudo-experts" and over-marketing social media influencers who exaggerate or distort techniques for profit, leading to genuine experts being misunderstood and creating industry chaos.

Liaoning Province, Anshan City, Tai'an County: The peak fertilizer application period has passed. Located on the Liaohe Plain, it is a main production area for corn and peanuts in southern Liaoning, with only one crop per year. Corn is the county's primary grain crop, widely planted across all townships. The corn farmland features fertile black soil and ample water, with planting scale consistently ranking first, making it the local pillar grain industry. Peanuts are the county's characteristic oil crop, cultivated intensively on sandy soil with a high degree of industrialization. Local planting is zoned according to conditions, with these two crops forming the core of the county's agriculture. Currently, the area is in a fertilizer off-season, with the fertilizer market stagnant. Only some areas have minor demand for urea top-dressing. It is understood that the fertilizer market has entered its off-season, with many fertilizer companies having stopped quoting prices. Currently, distributors are mainly engaged in field agricultural services and attending crop meetings, replenishing stock flexibly based on specific situations. For urea, small and medium granule urea ex-factory prices are 1,850-1,900 yuan, with 40kg bagged products retailing around 80 yuan. "At this stage, urea demand is relatively low, and price fluctuations are not significant, with rises or falls within 100 yuan. Prices have been basically flat over the past month," the interviewed distributor stated. For compound fertilizers, balanced fertilizers are less used in Northeast China, and one-time fertilization is common, making the fertilizer application peak season very compact. 48% chlorine-based compound fertilizer (26-10-12) is 2,850-2,950 yuan ex-factory, retailing around 3,200 yuan. 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer (15-15-15) is 3,300-3,400 yuan ex-factory, retailing from 3,600 to 3,800 yuan. "Currently, the Liaoning compound fertilizer market has basically ended. The main purchases now are for plant protection products like corn growth regulators and peanut pre-emergence herbicides," the distributor said. For phosphate fertilizers, 64% diammonium phosphate ex-factory prices are stable at 4,500-4,600 yuan. It is understood that due to last year's phosphate fertilizer price increases, farmers chose more affordable phosphate products, but corresponding product quality was poorer. This situation led to widespread root rot in corn seedlings this year. "The root rot outbreak is related to farmers using large amounts of blended fertilizers. The quality of these phosphate fertilizers is poor, chosen to save on planting costs," the distributor explained. Unlike the diverse fruit and vegetable cultivation patterns in the south, Liaoning's farming industry is relatively singular. It is understood that this year, corn seedlings in Liaoning initially showed good growth, but mid-to-late growth stages suffered widespread pest and disease infestations, with outbreak severity far exceeding previous years, significantly impacting crop growth. "To address frequent underground pest issues, local farmers use methods like root drenching with pesticides and seed dressing with phorate, but control effectiveness is limited. Some pests remain in the soil, continuously threatening crop root growth," the distributor stated. "In the future, we need to optimize prevention methods by directly mixing underground pest control agents into seeds or fertilizers, using preemptive prevention to enhance pest control effectiveness and reduce incidence from the source." The distributor explained that this year's high pest and disease incidence stems from multiple environmental and agricultural factors. On one hand, the local climate has changed noticeably. Previous winter lows could reach minus 20-30 degrees Celsius, while last winter's minimum was only around minus 10 degrees, significantly reducing the low-temperature suppression of pathogens and pests. On the other hand, traditional practices like straw burning have been completely banned. Straw is uniformly collected for power generation and livestock farming, which meets environmental requirements but also means insect eggs, fungi, and bacteria in the soil are not naturally eliminated. Coupled with annually warming climate conditions, this has significantly increased the risk of soil-borne pest and disease outbreaks. "My main work now is to go deep into the fields to solve farmers' planting problems, while also participating in company training sessions to improve service levels," the distributor said.

Anhui Province, Bozhou City, Lixin County: Market demand is insufficient. As a traditional major agricultural county, it has about 2 million mu of arable land, with large-scale farmers accounting for 20-30%. The planting structure is relatively singular, primarily wheat-corn rotation. Currently, the local agricultural input market is in a low season, with insufficient fertilizer demand. Market activity mainly involves corn fertilizer transactions. For urea, small granule urea ex-factory prices are 1,800-1,850 yuan, with retail prices basically matching ex-factory, showing little fluctuation and recent stability. For compound fertilizers, 40% (27-5-8) is around 2,400 yuan ex-factory, retailing near 2,500 yuan. 45% chlorine-based compound fertilizer (15-15-15) is 2,850-3,050 yuan ex-factory, retailing around 3,200 yuan, with some premium products above 3,200 yuan. 48% chlorine-based compound fertilizer (16-16-16) is about 3,400 yuan ex-factory, retailing from 3,600 to 3,700 yuan. 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer (15-15-15) is 3,550-3,600 yuan ex-factory, retailing around 3,800 yuan. 51% sulfur-based compound fertilizer (17-17-17) is 3,950-4,000 yuan ex-factory, retailing above 4,200 yuan. "Recently, wheat is about to be harvested, and the corn fertilizer peak season is approaching," the interviewed distributor stated. "Compound fertilizer prices have basically stabilized recently, but they remain high. Farmers' sentiment is quite negative, creating significant pressure for distributors' operations. Sales are not very smooth. Especially for premium fertilizers from large manufacturers, we need to offer more promotional incentives to attract farmers to purchase." According to the distributor, Anhui recently experienced extreme weather, with hail negatively affecting the即将收获的小麦 (wheat about to be harvested). "Hail flattened large areas of wheat, causing significant losses. Moreover, muddy fields are difficult to harvest, as large combine harvesters cannot enter, requiring manual harvesting at high cost. In recent years, frequent extreme weather has greatly impacted farmers' enthusiasm for grain cultivation." It is understood that in previous years at this time, the distributor would already be shipping corn fertilizer to farmers, but this year sales are extremely slow, with very high inventory pressure. "Farmers have no money, and confidence in premium products is insufficient. They are starting to look towards smaller brand fertilizers. Many distributors have also started taking on part-time work in other industries. The operating situation is not optimistic." The distributor explained that due to unfavorable natural conditions in Anhui in recent years, coupled with low grain prices, both farmers and distributors have been troubled. The operational pressure passed down from upstream enterprises is making it hard for some distributors to "breathe." "We hope enterprises will consider practical factors more, appropriately reduce pressure, and ensure distributors' operations run reasonably and healthily."