Key data points to watch: The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July rose 3.4% year-on-year (down from 3.5% in the previous month) and 0.1% month-on-month, while core CPI fell to 2.5% year-on-year (from 2.6% in the previous month). Both headline and sub-indicators matched expectations. The market quickly lowered the probability of a September rate hike, and international gold prices edged higher but remained in a volatile range around $4400 per ounce.

Today, the US will release July Producer Price Index (PPI) and initial jobless claims data, which serve as a key validation after the CPI report. If PPI continues to cool, it will align with CPI to form a dual-moderate inflation scenario, potentially pushing the probability of a September rate cut below 35%. In this case, international gold prices are likely to rally further. Conversely, if PPI surprises to the upside, the narrative of "CPI being mild but corporate cost pressures remaining" could reignite rate hike pricing, leading to a gold price pullback.

If initial jobless claims rise above 210,000, combined with a moderate PPI, this would strengthen the "most favorable gold combination" of a slowing US economy and cooling inflation. Federal Reserve officials are also speaking today. If their remarks reiterate that "US inflation risks still require a rate hike," it would partially offset the positive data impact. If their tone softens, it could open the upside for gold prices.

From a technical perspective, if both data points are mild, international gold prices will likely find support at $4,244 per ounce and attempt to break through the first resistance level at $4,470. A successful breakout would target the second resistance at $4,597. If PPI exceeds expectations, initial jobless claims come in low, and Fed officials sound hawkish, gold prices may retest support at $4,244, or even the first support level at $4,116. Before the strong resistance level of $4,470 is effectively broken, caution is advised against blindly chasing long positions.