The hot topics section includes self-selected stocks, data centers, market trends, and capital flow simulation trading clients. According to the National Investment Futures Research Institute, increased area and reduced yield lead to lower ending stocks, with US corn showing a strong performance.

On August 13th, the US Department of Agriculture released its August agricultural supply and demand report, which was largely bullish for corn. The report data shows that the US corn planting area for the 2026/27 season is 96.7 million acres, an increase of 1.4 million acres. The harvested area is 88.6 million acres, up 1.2 million acres. The US corn yield per acre is revised down to 180.7 bushels per acre. Combining the effects of increased area and reduced yield, total US corn production for the 2026/27 season is projected at 16.013 billion bushels, an increase of 130 million bushels from the previous month, marking the second-highest corn production record in US history. Additionally, the US corn ending stock for the 2026/27 season is expected to be 1.653 billion bushels, significantly lower than the pre-report market average of 1.725 billion bushels from the Reuters survey. The report is overall bullish, with US corn trading strongly.

Other specific data shows that for the 2026/27 season, total US corn supply will decrease, exports will increase, and ending stocks will decline. Due to an upward adjustment in old-crop corn exports, the beginning stocks for new-season US corn are reduced by 75 million bushels to 1.945 billion bushels, and total US corn supply is lowered by 62 million bushels. On the demand side, with domestic usage unchanged, US corn exports increase by 75 million bushels to 3.275 billion bushels, and total usage rises by the same amount to 16.33 billion bushels. Globally, total international corn production increases to 1.299 billion tons, mainly driven by higher output in Russia, Ukraine, and Zambia, partially offset by a decline in EU production. The EU's major corn-growing regions are experiencing extreme heat and drought, leading to reduced production expectations and lower planting area. In global corn trade, US exports increase for the 2026/27 season, while exports from Ukraine and the EU decrease. The EU's corn imports rise due to its own production shortfall. Regarding ending stocks, increases in Ukraine, Russia, and Zambia partially offset a decline in Brazil. Global corn ending stocks for the 2026/27 season are 274.66 million tons, down 600,000 tons year-on-year.

In summary, international crude oil prices have been running at high levels recently due to geopolitical influences. As a primary raw material for US fuel ethanol, high oil prices will continue to impact US corn prices, providing short-term support. However, the pace of Dalian corn may differ slightly. In the medium term, although domestic downstream inventories remain relatively low, purchasing willingness is weak, with only rigid demand procurement being maintained. Meanwhile, trade inventories are slightly higher than in previous years. Additionally, the competitiveness of sprouted wheat and wheat substitutions this year, along with a significant increase in international grain imports compared to last year, are all exerting pressure on the Dalian corn market. However, the initiation of wheat support purchases has stabilized the corn market, making a future upward shift in Dalian corn futures prices likely.

Senior Analyst at National Investment Futures Research Institute: Song Teng, Futures Investment Consulting License Number: Z0021166