Title

Earning Preview: JinkoSolar this quarter’s revenue is expected to decrease by 11.53%, and institutional views are bullish

Abstract

JinkoSolar will release its results on April 16, 2026, Pre-Market, with the market looking for about 2.86 billion US dollars in revenue and a negative adjusted EPS near -1.35, while investors focus on margin stabilization, shipment mix, and the pace of recently announced project wins across Europe and the United States.

Market Forecast

The current-quarter revenue estimate stands at 2.86 billion US dollars, implying a year-over-year decline of 11.53%, alongside a forecast adjusted EPS of approximately -1.35, indicating a year-over-year change of -222.80%; the EBIT estimate is -180.71 million US dollars, reflecting a -118.11% year-over-year change. Forecasted gross profit margin and net profit margin for this quarter were not provided in the available projections, so margin expectations are framed around qualitative drivers such as product mix and manufacturing cost trends rather than explicit numerical guidance.

Within the company’s revenue structure, solar modules remain the dominant driver, supported by recently announced orders, localization measures in the United States, and expanded product availability for utility-scale projects. The most promising incremental contribution this quarter is expected from other solar-related products that encompass value-added solutions and systems; detailed year-over-year comparisons for this sub-segment were not disclosed, but last quarter’s revenue contribution from this category was material in absolute terms and is supported by new solution launches aligned to end-customer requirements.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, JinkoSolar reported revenue of 2.27 billion US dollars, down 35.01% year over year, with a gross profit margin of 7.31%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of -0.75 billion US dollars, a net profit margin of -4.64%, and an adjusted EPS of -0.996, reflecting a year-over-year change of -1,159.57%. Revenue undershot expectations by 291.21 million US dollars while adjusted EPS came in 0.877 better than anticipated, evidencing tighter operating discipline despite volume and price headwinds.

From a revenue-mix perspective, solar modules accounted for 96.49% of sales in the last reported period, followed by other solar products at 2.46%, solar cells at 0.90%, and wafers at 0.16%; segment-level year-over-year growth rates were not disclosed, but the mix highlights the centrality of modules while indicating a meaningful and growing contribution from value-added categories.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Solar modules: shipment cadence, pricing, and cost curve shape the P&L

The core of JinkoSolar’s near-term performance will be set by its module shipments, average selling prices, and conversion costs. The revenue estimate of 2.86 billion US dollars embeds a year-over-year decline of 11.53%, which implies the current quarter’s top line is sensitive to volume realizations and the net price-per-watt trajectory, even if unit manufacturing costs continue to trend lower. Shipment mix—particularly the balance of higher-efficiency products—remains a factor for realized ASPs and gross profit per unit.

Recent commercial updates reinforce the near-term order book with concrete, dated wins: JinkoSolar signed a 117.18 MW ground-mounted project supply agreement in Italy and a 39.15 MW supply agreement in the Netherlands, both within this quarter’s news window. While individual project revenues will be recognized according to delivery schedules, these wins signal healthy demand pipeline for high-efficiency module lines, supporting the forecast revenue base despite the year-over-year decline. In the United States, the company entered a multi-year arrangement to secure US-manufactured steel module frames for its Jacksonville facility; this helps align with local-content expectations and reduces logistics complexity, factors that can improve order visibility and potentially support pricing in eligible projects. The combined effect of these dynamics should be most visible in the relationship between shipments and margin per watt, rather than in shipments alone.

Operational leverage is another focal point. Last quarter’s gross margin of 7.31% and net profit margin of -4.64% leave room for improvement if the company sustains throughput and benefits from incremental cost reductions on materials and overhead absorption. The forecast EBIT of -180.71 million US dollars implies continued pressure, but cost per watt improvements through process yields and scale can mitigate part of that. With adjusted EPS forecast at -1.35, investors are likely to focus on whether module-level gross profit dollars can stabilize sequentially and whether any mix shift toward premium SKUs helps defend margin even as headline revenue softens year over year.

Other solar-related products and integrated solutions: building incremental, higher-value revenue

Beyond modules, JinkoSolar’s other solar products category is positioned to add value through systems and solutions that can improve overall project economics for customers. Last quarter, this category contributed a meaningful absolute revenue base and a visible share within the mix, and the company continued to broaden offerings aligned to end-customer needs. During the current period, JinkoSolar announced a comprehensive solar-plus-storage solution tailored for artificial-intelligence data centers, emphasizing extended cycle life and high energy efficiency. Such offerings can deepen customer engagement by addressing power reliability and cost-of-energy requirements in complex, round-the-clock operating environments.

The commercial logic of these integrated solutions is straightforward: pairing modules with storage and balance-of-system components can increase revenue per project and create a platform for recurring or follow-on sales, including upgrades and expansions. While explicit revenue and year-over-year growth rates for the storage and systems subset are not disclosed, the product expansion indicates a strategic focus on value-added attachments that can help offset ASP pressure on modules. In addition, the US-localized sourcing arrangement for steel module frames may support solution-level competitiveness in North American projects by simplifying the supply chain and improving eligibility across incentive frameworks. If deliveries for these solutions commence on schedule, the category can contribute incremental gross profit dollars, even if total company revenue remains below last year’s level.

The immediate quarter’s financials will still be dominated by modules, but investors should monitor disclosures around bookings, contracted backlog, and early-stage deployments for these newer solutions. Evidence of traction—such as more signed MW-scale orders or customer expansions—would validate the segment’s role as a stabilizer for consolidated margins over time.

Key stock price drivers this quarter: margin stability, execution in localized supply, and earnings trajectory

With adjusted EPS forecast at approximately -1.35, earnings trajectory remains the headline variable, and the pathway to an inflection depends on gross profit stabilization and tighter operating expense management. Last quarter’s adjusted EPS was better than expected by 0.877, even as revenue missed by 291.21 million US dollars; this highlights the sensitivity of earnings to cost and mix rather than volumes alone. For the current quarter, investors will scrutinize whether module gross profit dollars are flat to slightly up sequentially, which could materialize if cost improvements outpace any additional ASP erosion.

Execution in US localization is another core driver. The multi-year arrangement for US-produced steel frames aligned to the Jacksonville facility suggests progress in de-risking sourcing and manufacturing for North American deliveries. The benefits could include enhanced eligibility for customer projects and reduced logistics frictions, but they also require tight production planning to avoid incremental unit costs from underutilization or ramp inefficiencies. A clean operational execution would support margin credibility and strengthen the company’s narrative around delivering consistent modules and integrated systems to priority geographies.

The third near-term driver is revenue quality and visibility. The Italy 117.18 MW and Netherlands 39.15 MW contract announcements provide discrete datapoints that may not change the numerator of this quarter’s revenue estimate by themselves but can affect the denominator of risk by demonstrating ongoing demand for premium modules. If management can supplement these with commentary on the cadence of deliveries and conversion of late-stage opportunities, investors may gain confidence that the revenue decline of 11.53% year over year is controlled and consistent with a deliberate focus on gross profit per watt. Together, these drivers shape how the market will interpret a negative EBIT estimate of -180.71 million US dollars: whether it signals prolonged pressure or a transitional trough linked to mix and investment in higher-value offerings.

Analyst Opinions

Among the dated opinions gathered within the period from January 1, 2026 to April 9, 2026, the ratio of bullish to bearish views was 100% to 0% based on identified rating actions, indicating a clear tilt toward a constructive stance. Daiwa Securities upgraded JinkoSolar to Buy from Sell and raised its target price to 28.50 US dollars from 20.00 US dollars on March 24, 2026. While no explicit earnings preview from the institution was cited in the items reviewed, the upgrade and higher target underscore an expectation of improved execution and risk-reward dynamics as the company advances shipments, scales localized sourcing for its US operations, and broadens its solutions portfolio.

This perspective dovetails with the current quarter’s quantitative setup. The market anticipates revenue of 2.86 billion US dollars, down 11.53% year over year, and an adjusted EPS near -1.35. Against that backdrop, a rating upgrade suggests that the institution expects either better-than-feared unit economics or a clearer trajectory toward earnings normalization, supported by concrete project wins in Europe and the supply-chain arrangement for the Jacksonville facility. Such institutional views are consistent with investors looking through negative EBIT of -180.71 million US dollars this quarter to a potential stabilization in gross profit dollars and an improved mix of higher-efficiency modules and integrated offerings.

The bullish interpretation is further bolstered by the mixed but improving tone around recent trading sessions for related American depositary receipts during the quarter, where JinkoSolar featured among gainers in some sessions despite broader volatility. While these session-level moves are not substitutes for fundamental forecasts, they highlight market receptivity to company-specific updates and rating changes. Taken together, the upgrade and raised target from a recognized brokerage align with the view that JinkoSolar’s reported results on April 16, 2026, Pre-Market, could provide incremental clarity on margins, shipments, and the commercialization of solution-level offerings—key variables that shape the next leg of price discovery.