UBS Retains Buy Rating on China Res Land with HK$36 Target, Cites Potential Upside from REIT Spinoff

Stock News
Apr 29

UBS has issued a research report maintaining a "Buy" rating on China Res Land (01109) with a target price of HK$36. On April 28, China Res Land announced plans to spin off two shopping malls located in Nantong, Jiangsu Province, and Linyi, Shandong Province, listing them as REITs on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The offering is expected to raise approximately 5.4 billion yuan, with China Res Land retaining a 20–30% stake in the REIT. On the same day, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange disclosed that the company also intends to spin off the Chengdu MixC shopping center to establish a closed-end commercial real estate REIT. According to UBS, based on Chengdu MixC’s projected rental income of 910 million yuan in 2025, a 5% net operating income (NOI) capitalization rate, and a 60% NOI margin, the potential asset valuation is estimated at around 10.9 billion yuan. Consequently, the total value of these three assets could reach 16.3 billion yuan, exceeding the company’s previous annual guidance of 10–15 billion yuan. This valuation is also higher than the 13.1 billion yuan in assets (with 4.6 billion yuan in disposal gains) that the company planned to sell in 2024. UBS expects these three assets to contribute 3.3–4 billion yuan, accounting for 15–18% of the projected core profit in 2026. This aligns with the bank’s expectation that China Res Land will continue transforming its business model by spinning off additional assets.

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