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In the week before the holiday, the market continued to trade with shrinking volume and range-bound fluctuations. Structurally, the high-low switching continued, with innovative drugs, real estate, and banks relatively outperforming, while telecommunications and semiconductors were still digesting crowdedness. During the holiday, incremental information was generally positive: domestically, the September manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory, holiday consumption data was stable in aggregate but divergent in structure, and the fiscal interest subsidy for first-home mortgages was implemented on the policy side; overseas, under "weak non-farm payrolls," stocks rose while bonds lagged, and CME FedWatch showed the probability of an October rate hike falling from above 70% to around 20%, with the Nasdaq 100 hitting a new high. Combined with the calendar effect after the long holiday, A-shares had already experienced significant adjustments before the holiday, earnings expectations are stable, and a volume-driven rebound is expected after the holiday. However, under high oil prices, the global interest rate upward trend still exerts pressure on the denominator side. It is recommended to avoid pure thematic and high-valuation stocks, and continue to rebalance along earnings, low crowdedness, and low volatility.

Calendar Effect: Historically, a High Probability of Volume-Driven Rebound After Holidays, with Significant Reversal Characteristics

Statistics on the calendar effect after the National Day long holiday since 2005: 1) In the week after the holiday, the all-A average gain was 0.44% with a win rate of 71.4%, small caps outperformed large caps, growth outperformed value, and technology, pharmaceuticals, and real estate late-cycle industries showed higher elasticity; 2) After the holiday, there was a reversal characteristic relative to before the holiday. Based on whether the absolute value of the gain or loss exceeded 0.5%, the week before the National Day holiday was classified as rising, flat, or falling. Since 2005, in years when the pre-holiday week rose, the average decline in the first week after the holiday was 0.8%, while in years when it was flat or falling, the average gains were 0.5% and 2.2% respectively. Moreover, after excluding the two extreme years of 2008 and 2024, there was still a significant negative correlation between the gains and losses in the week before and the week after the holiday, meaning the more sufficient the pre-holiday risk aversion, the more pronounced the post-holiday rebound. Considering that there are only two trading days this week, the market may be dominated by short-term capital replenishment, and the medium-term direction still needs further clarification.

Holiday Incremental Information: Domestic Consumption Volume-Price Divergence, Overseas "Weak Non-Farm" Dominates Asset Pricing

Overall, the incremental information during the holiday was positive for A-shares: domestically, the September manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory (50.1%), combined with the implementation of the fiscal interest subsidy for first-home mortgages, expectations for "stable growth + reflation" in Q4 are heating up; on the travel side, according to the Ministry of Transport, the total cross-regional personnel flow on the first day of the holiday was 329 million, a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, of which railway passenger volume was 25.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, and total holiday travel is expected to reach 2.13 billion; on the consumption side, according to the Ministry of Commerce, in the first three days of the holiday, foot traffic and revenue in key monitored commercial districts increased by 3.4% and 5.3% year-on-year respectively, but the volume-price divergence characteristic continued. Overseas, September non-farm payrolls came in far below consensus expectations, and August data was revised down, significantly cooling market rate hike expectations. The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher collectively, and PCB and other AI hardware pushed the Nasdaq 100 to a new high. In addition, Hong Kong stocks fell first and then rose during the holiday, with computing power hardware, innovative drugs, and other sectors strengthening.

Global Interest Rate Upward Pressure Under Repeated Geopolitical and Oil Price Fluctuations Remains the Core Constraint on the Market

Recently, Trump stated that after the November midterm elections, he might increase efforts to strike Iran. Iran also stated that before the seven conditions proposed in the memorandum of understanding are met, the Strait of Hormuz will never be opened, and a new round of conflict between Saudi-supported forces and Houthi armed groups has emerged in the direction of the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Geopolitical risks have not yet been cleared. Affected by this, oil prices fell first and then rose during the holiday, with Brent crude oil prices remaining above $100 per barrel. The chain of oil prices transmitting to interest rates through inflation expectations has not been broken. Although the pace of rate hikes is expected to slow under weak non-farm payrolls, the global interest rate upward trend has not reversed. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield broke through 5.2% before the holiday, briefly exceeded 5.3% during the holiday, and hit a new high since 2002. The UK 30-year government bond yield rose to 6% for the first time since 1998. The valuation pressure brought by the global interest rate upward trend on the denominator side remains the core constraint on the market.

Allocation Recommendations: Rebalance Along Earnings, Low Crowdedness, and Low Volatility

In terms of allocation, it is recommended to proceed along three lines: First, continue to focus on technology hardware. Nvidia's buyback and other factors support overseas technology stock sentiment during the holiday and are expected to map to A-shares. Earnings visibility in optical communications, PCB, and other segments is relatively high; second, directions with allocation gaps between prosperity and positioning, or with resonance catalysts from policy and fundamentals, including innovative drugs, certain chemicals (such as fluorochemicals, chemical fibers), shipping, shipbuilding, and some real estate chain segments; third, dividends continue to serve as the portfolio's base position. Risk warnings: Overseas geopolitical risks exceeding expectations; overseas liquidity tightening exceeding expectations. Main text: Market structure, domestic liquidity, overseas liquidity. Research report "Post-Holiday Recovery Window May Be Approaching" October 7, 2026. Wang Weiguang, Researcher SAC No. S0570523040001; Fang Zhengtao, Researcher SAC No. S0570524060001; Sun Hanwen, Researcher SAC No. S0570524040002 SFC No. BVB302.