The heavy-duty truck market in June 2026 continued to show robust performance both year-on-year and month-on-month.

Preliminary data indicates that approximately 115,000 heavy-duty trucks were sold in China during June, based on wholesale figures including exports and new energy vehicles.

This represents a roughly 5% increase from May and an 18% rise compared to the 98,000 units sold in the same month last year.

While the year-on-year growth rate moderated compared to the March-May period, this marks the highest June sales figure in the past five years.

For the first half of the year, cumulative sales in the heavy-duty truck sector reached about 660,000 units, reflecting a 22% year-on-year increase.

The sales growth in June was partly driven by some manufacturers pushing for stronger first-half performance figures.

A more significant driver was the accelerated phase-out and renewal of older National IV and National V standard trucks, coupled with surging sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks and robust export performance.

Firstly, a new dynamic in the 2026 market is the faster replacement of National V diesel trucks under competitive pressure from electric models, fueling strong demand for new vehicle purchases.

This has supported domestic market activity even during the traditional off-season, and with the implementation of trade-in policies for National IV commercial trucks, terminal demand in June continued to show double-digit year-on-year growth.

It is worth noting that while oil prices had declined somewhat by June, natural gas prices remained elevated.

Since late April, LNG prices have risen rapidly to above 6.5 yuan per kilogram, with prices in some regions even reaching 7 yuan/kg.

This has significantly eroded the cost advantage of LNG-powered trucks in many areas, negatively impacting the gas-fueled vehicle market in June, where sales saw notable declines both month-on-month and year-on-year.

Secondly, the closely watched heavy-duty truck export sector maintained its upward trajectory in June, with exports expected to surge approximately 35% year-on-year.



Examining Key Segments: Sustained Explosive Growth for Electric Trucks and a Potential Rebound for Gas Vehicles?

Given the market's fourth consecutive monthly rise in June 2026, how did key segments like natural gas and new energy heavy-duty trucks perform?

Terminal sales for the domestic heavy-duty truck market in June, measured by compulsory traffic insurance registrations, are estimated to have grown nearly 20% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of about 8-9%.

This performance is particularly notable considering that June 2025 already represented a high base for terminal sales at 69,200 units.

Looking first at natural gas heavy-duty trucks: Terminal sales for gas-powered trucks exceeded 30,000 units in both March and April, setting the second and third highest historical monthly records.

However, starting from late April 2026, LNG prices began to climb sharply.

In most regions, the terminal price for vehicle-use LNG was over 2 yuan more expensive than at the start of the year, with prices in some areas exceeding 7 yuan/kg.

Compared to diesel prices of 5.5-6 yuan per liter at many private fuel stations, the price spread between gas and oil effectively inverted in May and June, meaning LNG refueling costs surpassed diesel prices.

This essentially eliminated the economic advantage of gas trucks, leading to a sustained decline in their sales.

Based on domestic terminal data, sales of natural gas heavy-duty trucks in June are estimated to have fallen by about 14% month-on-month and 11% year-on-year, reducing their domestic market penetration rate to around 15%.

Despite the weak performance throughout June, this segment may be poised for a significant turnaround.

From the end of June to the present, LNG prices in major regions across the country have been declining consecutively, with prices in some areas dropping below 6 yuan/kg.

This suggests the natural gas heavy-duty truck market could bottom out and rebound in the third quarter, achieving growth both sequentially and compared to the prior year.

On the other hand, driven by replacement demand from the phase-out of National IV and V trucks and high fuel prices, sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks continued to accelerate in June.

Terminal sales for this segment in June are estimated to have more than doubled year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of approximately 20%.

Consequently, the domestic penetration rate for new energy heavy-duty trucks in June is expected to exceed 45%, rising further from the 40.9% rate recorded in May.

From a macro perspective, "new energy heavy-duty trucks" have become a key focus for both market forces and policy support.

On May 13, several ministries jointly issued implementation rules for the 2026 program to scrap and replace old commercial trucks.

Subsequently, in June, 11 government departments jointly released an implementation plan to promote the large-scale adoption of new energy heavy-duty trucks.

The plan sets clear targets: achieving a 40% penetration rate for new energy heavy-duty trucks by 2030, with a fleet exceeding 1.6 million vehicles, accounting for about 20% of the total.

It also aims for over 80% electrification of fixed-route short-haul transport in key regions like the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area and the Fenwei Plain.

The plan calls for building approximately 3,000 battery swapping and charging stations for electric heavy-duty trucks aligned with highway network development, guiding the scientific deployment of hydrogen refueling and green fuel stations in key scenarios, and achieving an 18% share of highway freight volume transported by new energy heavy-duty trucks.

The goal is to establish an infrastructure, technology, service, standard, and policy support system adapted for the large-scale application of new energy heavy-duty trucks, forming a multi-departmental, multi-stakeholder collaborative promotion mechanism.

Following this trajectory, the new energy heavy-duty truck market is expected to remain strong from May and June through the end of the year, with annual sales exceeding 300,000 units now appearing highly likely.