A research report from GLMS SEC indicates that a structural electricity gap has been created by the combined effects of lagging global grid construction and extended delivery cycles for heavy-duty gas turbines. With limited short-term capacity expansion from major international manufacturers, the tight supply-demand situation is expected to continue for the next 2-3 years. Domestic gas turbines have achieved breakthroughs in extreme operating conditions within the marine energy sector, demonstrating strong product capability. Gas turbines are utilized across the upstream, midstream, and downstream segments of the oil and gas industry, positioning them as another key area for the overseas expansion of Chinese-made turbines.
Key points from GLMS SEC are as follows:
Aero-derivative gas turbines, characterized by their "speed, light weight, stability, and maintainability," are well-suited for distributed energy and other applications. The core advantages of these turbines lie in their ability to rapidly fill electricity gaps and meet the fast deployment needs of sectors such as data centers. According to Global Market Insights Inc., the global market for aero-derivative gas turbines is projected to be valued at approximately $7.3 billion in 2025, accounting for 41.06% of the total gas turbine market share. The market is expected to grow from $8.2 billion in 2026 to $21.5 billion by 2035, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 11.3%. The top five manufacturers, including GE Vernova, are estimated to hold around 40% of the market share in 2025.
Utility Dive reports that global gas turbine orders reached 846 units in 2025, with a total installed capacity of 100.3 gigawatts—more than double the orders placed in 2024 (399 units, 58.2 gigawatts). However, due to constrained short-term capacity growth among major international producers, the supply-demand imbalance is likely to persist over the next 2-3 years. This significant gap is fostering the adoption of rapidly deployable power generation solutions like aero-derivative gas turbines, which offer clear advantages over reciprocating engines and solid oxide fuel cells in terms of cost and environmental emissions. Simultaneously, it presents a critical opportunity for China’s gas turbine industry, which holds comparative advantages in production capacity and delivery timelines, to expand internationally.
The current period marks a key starting point for domestic gas turbine manufacturers to secure bulk orders and achieve concentrated growth in overseas markets. Primary pathways for international expansion include:
1. North American and Global Power-Deficit Markets: Persistent electricity shortages in North America and other regions, particularly driven by the trend of U.S. data centers building their own power supplies, will serve as important growth markets for Chinese gas turbine exports. 2. Marine Energy and Oil & Gas Value Chain: Domestic gas turbines have already proven their reliability in extreme marine energy applications. As gas turbines are integral to upstream, midstream, and downstream oil and gas operations, this sector represents another promising frontier for overseas expansion.
Risk factors include weaker-than-expected market demand and slower-than-anticipated international growth for domestic gas turbines.