Recent reports indicate that the US Treasury is considering utilising funds from the nearly trillion-dollar Treasury General Account (TGA) to finance an expanded debt buyback programme. The TGA, now viewed as a viable funding source, has accumulated a balance of approximately $950 billion, significantly exceeding the $550-600 billion target level seen during the Biden administration. If implemented, this move would substantially alter market perceptions regarding the Treasury's capacity to influence long-end interest rates.

On the geopolitical front, US Treasury Secretary Bessent has unveiled multiple economic sanctions targeting Iran, intensifying pressure on the nation. The US is set to broaden the scope of secondary sanctions against countries engaging in commercial transactions with Iran, urging these nations to make a choice. Bessent stated that sanctions decisions have been issued across five key sectors underpinning the Iranian regime's economy—digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping—along with penalties on over 60 entities, individuals, and vessels worldwide. President Trump is reportedly calling foreign leaders to demand they cease commercial dealings with Iran. Meanwhile, Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf stated that Tehran's trade partners have indicated they "will not take seriously" the US sanctions rhetoric, and a senior advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader warned that Tehran's response to American threats will be more resolute than ever.

Futures trading data for 2026-08-24 shows the main Shanghai gold contract opened at 990.52 yuan/gram and closed at 1006.82 yuan/gram, a 1.96% change from the previous close, with volume of 41,087 lots and open interest of 129,725 lots. During the overnight session, the contract opened at 1010.00 yuan/gram and settled at 1005.96 yuan/gram, down 0.09% from the afternoon close. For silver, the main Shanghai contract opened at 16,896.00 yuan/kg and closed at 16,843.00 yuan/kg, up 0.43% from the prior close, with volume of 757,231 lots and open interest of 298,270 lots. The overnight session saw silver open at 16,841 yuan/kg and finish at 16,775 yuan/kg, a decline of 0.40%.

The US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.74% on 2026-08-24, a change of 0.05% from the previous day, with the 10-year-2-year spread at 0.50%, unchanged day-on-day. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the Au2610 contract saw long positions increase by 3 lots and short positions decrease by 3 lots. Total turnover for gold contracts reached 496,233 lots, down 7.84% from the prior session. For the Ag2610 contract, long positions fell by 44 lots while shorts rose by 2 lots, with total silver turnover of 1,193,192 lots, up 1.12% daily.

Precious metals ETF holdings showed gold ETFs at 1,049.49 tonnes, an increase of 2.28 tonnes, while silver ETFs rose by 19.68 tonnes to 15,295.27 tonnes. In arbitrage tracking, the domestic gold premium stood at -19.78 yuan/gram and the silver premium at -242.13 yuan/kg. The gold-to-silver price ratio on the Shanghai exchange was approximately 59.78, down 0.99% from the prior day, while the offshore ratio was 65.92, a decrease of 1.96%.

In the physical market, Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D volumes on 2026-08-24 showed gold turnover of 68,028 kg, down 33.66% from the previous session, while silver turnover reached 315,994 kg, a decline of 11.25%. Gold delivery amounted to 11,872 kg and silver delivery to 25,680 kg.

Strategy Outlook

Gold: Cautiously Bullish

Given the Treasury's consideration of the near-trillion-dollar TGA for debt buybacks, short-term Treasury yields may decline, yet this is unlikely to directly resolve market doubts over the scale of US debt and the credibility of the Treasury system. Demand for gold as an investment may see a modest uptick, suggesting prices will likely maintain a range-bound yet firm trajectory. The Au2610 contract is expected to trade within a 995-1020 yuan/gram band.

Silver: Cautiously Bullish

Silver follows a similar logic to gold, with prices anticipated to remain in a range-bound but firm pattern. The Ag2610 contract is projected to fluctuate between 16,500 and 17,500 yuan/kg.

Arbitrage: On Hold

Options: On Hold

Risks

Overseas liquidity risks and continued exit of speculative positions remain key factors to monitor.