According to Woofun AI, the minutes from the September 15-16 meeting revealed that most officials supported another rate hike in 2026. U.S. stocks and gold prices showed little reaction, but Bitcoin bucked the trend and rose within five minutes of the release, highlighting the crypto market's different sensitivity to interest rates.

The minutes recorded that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. With a 12-0 vote, the Fed delivered its first rate hike since 2023. According to the minutes, most participants considered one more hike in 2026 a reasonable option, while some noted that inflation risks were rising and price growth could exceed expectations. A few officials believed the current rate was not restrictive, or only mildly restrictive. In the Fed's language, "restrictive" means borrowing costs are high enough to slow spending and curb inflation. All 19 officials supported the September hike, most expected another increase in 2026, inflation risks remained tilted to the upside, many saw a case for risk management through rate hikes, and several viewed the current rate as only mildly restrictive. Some participants also said they were still surprised by the rapid development of artificial intelligence and the massive scale of investment in data centers and chips.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, in the first five minutes after the 2 p.m. Eastern Time release, the S&P 500 Index, covering 500 large U.S. companies, held around 7,801 points, down 0.02%. Gold prices held steady near $4,110 per ounce, after touching about $4,125 roughly 45 minutes before the minutes were released. The document did not reveal much new information—the view that there would be another hike had already emerged on September 16, when the Fed's projections showed half of officials expected another 0.25 percentage point increase by year-end, with 16 of 18 officials seeing at least one hike. In addition, the minutes were released earlier than the September employment data. That month, U.S. employers created only about 29,000 jobs, well below the roughly 90,000 expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Traders had already cut the probability of an October hike to about 20% from around 55% a week earlier. Banks such as JPMorgan (JPM.US) expect another hike in December. Recently, long-term U.S. Treasury yields reached their highest level since 2002, a move linked to a $400 billion metals selloff earlier on Wednesday.

In the first five minutes after the release, Bitcoin on Binance rose from about $83,159 to $83,306, a gain of 0.18%, the largest among the three major markets. Bitcoin had previously fallen, trading around $83,600 at about 12:30 p.m. Eastern Time and dropping to about $83,050 shortly before 2 p.m. Unlike stocks, Bitcoin trades around the clock and had already begun falling before the release. Rate decisions have consistently influenced crypto market moves: in the week after the September hike, investors poured $3.55 billion into crypto funds, the largest weekly crypto inflow of 2026. Since that meeting, officials' public stances have diverged. New York Fed President Williams said one more hike this year is reasonable, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan argued at least two hikes may be needed. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said there is no urgent need for a hike right now. The Fed's next meeting will be held on October 27-28, just days before the U.S. midterm elections. The September consumer price data due on October 14 will be the last major inflation indicator before that decision. With that data release, everyone can watch today's Bitcoin price action.