On Thursday, July 30, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged during its early morning meeting, though three regional bank presidents dissented and voted for a 25-basis-point hike. Meanwhile, President Trump stated he would strike Iran in response to recent attacks on US forces stationed in the Middle East. Spot gold fell below the $4,000 mark during US trading on Wednesday before rebounding, accelerating its gains after the Fed's rate decision to close 0.94% higher at $4,066.38 per ounce.
In terms of news interpretation, the Fed's July meeting resulted in rates being held steady, with three regional Fed voting members supporting a rate increase. The overall statement showed no changes. Fed Chair Powell declined to call the meeting a "pause," noting that financial markets have not stopped pricing in activity. He stated that the Fed closely monitors market pricing but does not act on it, and will not hesitate to act when necessary and appropriate. Powell also said that withdrawing forward guidance requires a transition period, and there will still be press conferences through the end of the year. There is no soft inflation target; the only goal remains 2%. As of this writing, the market's total pricing for a Fed rate hike this year has been reduced by approximately 12 basis points compared to before the rate decision.
Regarding the gold price trend analysis, gold oscillated downward from its highs on Wednesday, testing the key support level of $4,000. It staged a bottom-finding rebound following the release of the rate decision early Thursday, eventually closing with a long upper shadow. The rebound near $4,116 encountered selling pressure, indicating that short-term bulls lack the strength to break through this resistance directly. This rebound is characterized as a recovery move within a downtrend, not a reversal of the trend. The price is currently testing the resistance of the 5-day moving average. Short-term bearish moving averages are beginning to flatten, and bearish momentum is clearly slowing. However, the 10-day moving average continues to decline, creating a joint resistance level. Until the price effectively clears the 10-day moving average, a return to a bullish trend cannot be confirmed.
On the 4-hour chart, the price completed a bottoming process, broke above the previous downward channel, and is now consolidating. The Bollinger Bands briefly opened before beginning to contract, suggesting the rapid rally phase is over and the market is entering a digestion phase. Short-term moving averages are forming a preliminary support zone. The 20-day moving average, corresponding to the $4,050 level, is a key support level for this rebound. If the price holds above this level, the recovery structure will be maintained. A break below would disrupt the rebound structure and send the market back into weak range-bound trading. The MACD has formed a golden cross below the zero line, but the red bars are shrinking after expanding, indicating that bullish momentum is waning. The KDJ indicator has surged into overbought territory and is turning downward, suggesting the market is preparing for a pullback to rebuild momentum. The larger timeframe has transitioned from a sustained correction to a wide range-bound pattern, with levels of $4,116 and $4,000 forming the current trading box.
On the hourly chart, the price fell from a high of $4,116, with the upper Bollinger Band acting as a strong resistance. The Bollinger Bands are transitioning from expansion to contraction and flattening, as the price exits high levels and enters a range-bound consolidation. Short-term moving averages, which were in a bullish alignment, are now tangled and converging, indicating a rebalancing of bullish and bearish forces. The MACD has formed a death cross at high levels, with green bars slowly releasing. This suggests a short-term bearish bias, with the price likely to continue declining to test support levels. A direct, new rally is unlikely in the near term. The market will prioritize a pullback to confirm support levels before attempting to test resistance again.
Summarizing the analysis across multiple timeframes, the daily chart shows a bottoming process, but the long upper shadow confirms significant resistance at higher levels; the rebound is a recovery, not a reversal. The 4-hour chart maintains a recovery structure, but bullish momentum is fading, awaiting a pullback to confirm support. The hourly chart is under short-term pressure, with a need for a correction. The overall market is entering a wide-range box pattern, with a range of $4,000 to $4,116. The recommended strategy is to avoid chasing breakouts or breakdowns. Instead, position based on the box's upper and lower boundaries, with a focus on the support at $4,050 and the resistance at $4,116. Follow the trend once a breakout is confirmed.
Regarding specific intraday trading ideas (for reference only, not investment advice):
1. For a short-term long position, consider buying when the price stabilizes in the $4,050-$4,055 range, with a stop loss below $4,038. The first target is $4,090, and a break above could see $4,110 resistance.
2. For a short-selling strategy, consider a small short position on the first test of the $4,110-$4,116 resistance zone, with a stop loss above $4,126. The targets are $4,070 and $4,055 support.