Market Analysis

Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran have reignited. The US Central Command stated that American forces have begun conducting additional strikes against Iranian targets. US President Trump declared that the US-Iran memorandum of understanding "has ended" and suggested a possible reinstatement of a maritime blockade against Iran, though he clarified it would be "only for Iran." Trump reiterated threats to strike Iranian critical civilian infrastructure and mentioned potentially controlling Khark Island, but later stated he did not believe another war with Iran would erupt. Sources indicate that Iran's armed forces, including its missile and drone units, are preparing for large-scale strikes on US military bases in the Middle East. Due to threats from the US, Iran has officially suspended negotiations with the United States regarding a final resolution. The renewed conflict in the Middle East has reportedly caused shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to "virtually stop." The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization condemned recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz area, noting that hundreds of ships and approximately 6,000 seafarers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf for safety reasons. He advised against routing vessels through the Strait of Hormuz until the safety of seafarers can be guaranteed.

Regarding the Federal Reserve, the June meeting minutes revealed that while policymakers unanimously agreed to keep interest rates unchanged, policy divisions became more apparent. Upside risks to inflation are prominent. The minutes removed guidance on potential rate cuts, clearly stating there is room for rate hikes if high prices persist. Simultaneously, they retained the possibility of rate cuts, emphasizing a shift towards easing if inflation moderates or the economy weakens.

Futures Market and Trading Volume:

On 2026-07-08, the main gold futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) opened at 911.54 yuan per gram and closed at 902.76 yuan per gram, representing a change of -0.11% from the previous trading day's close. The day's trading volume was 41,087 contracts, with open interest at 129,725 contracts. In the previous night session, the main gold contract opened at 892.50 yuan/gram and closed at 892.30 yuan/gram, a decrease of 1.16% from the afternoon session's close.

On 2026-07-08, the main silver futures contract opened at 15,000.00 yuan per kilogram and closed at 14,860.00 yuan per kilogram, a change of -0.13% from the prior close. The day's trading volume was 536,399 contracts, with open interest at 201,364 contracts. In the night session, the main silver contract opened at 14,410 yuan/kg and closed at 14,260 yuan/kg, falling 4.04% from the afternoon close.

US Treasury Yields and Spread Monitoring:

On 2026-07-08, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.55%, a change of 0.07% from the previous day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.36%, a change of 0.01% from the prior session.

SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes:

On 2026-07-08, for the Au2608 contract, long positions decreased by 2,789 contracts compared to the previous day, while short positions decreased by 1,770 contracts. The total trading volume for gold contracts the previous trading day was 243,319 contracts, a change of 22.11% from the day before. For silver, on the Ag2608 contract, long positions changed by -3,084 contracts, and short positions changed by -423 contracts. The total trading volume for silver contracts the previous trading day was 1,026,459 contracts, a change of 10.44% from the prior session.

Precious Metals ETF Holdings Tracking:

For precious metals ETFs, gold ETF holdings stood at 1,002.51 tonnes yesterday, a decrease of 0.28 tonnes from the previous day. Silver ETF holdings were 14,939 tonnes, down 34 tonnes from the prior day.

Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking:

Futures-Spot Basis: On 2026-07-08, for the domestic premium, gold's domestic premium was 4.12 yuan/gram, while silver's domestic premium was -32.80 yuan/kilogram. Gold-Silver Ratio: The ratio of the main SHFE gold and silver contract prices yesterday was approximately 60.75, a change of 0.02% from the previous day. The international gold-silver ratio was 68.01, a change of 2.03% from the last trading day.

Fundamentals:

Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D Market Monitoring: On the last trading day (2026-07-08), gold trading volume on the SGE was 35,144 kilograms, a change of 54.91% from the previous day. Silver trading volume was 274,880 kilograms, a change of -4.84% from the prior session. Gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and silver delivery volume was 1,170 kilograms.

Strategy

Gold: Neutral

Currently, market risk sentiment is showing signs of resurgence, which may slightly dampen investment demand for gold. Therefore, it is anticipated that gold prices will likely maintain a consolidative pattern in the near term. The Au2608 contract is expected to trade within a range of 870 yuan/gram to 920 yuan/gram.

Silver: Neutral

Both silver and gold are under renewed pressure. Silver prices are also expected to remain in a consolidative pattern. The Ag2608 contract is anticipated to trade within a range of 14,000 yuan/kilogram to 15,000 yuan/kilogram.

Arbitrage: Pause

Options: Pause

Risks

Overseas liquidity risks.

Sustained exit of speculative positions.