In recent years, the corn purchasing prices and volumes at Jinzhou Port and Northeast deep-processing enterprises have shown a consistent trend, indicating a close linkage between the two. Since the beginning of 2026, the overall purchasing volume at the Jinzhou and Bayuquan ports, as well as at Northeast deep-processing enterprises, has shown an upward trend. However, from May to June, influenced by weak end-user demand, the availability of imported substitutes, and the gradual arrival of new-season wheat in the market, corn demand in the Northeast is expected to decline, with potential downward pressure on market prices.
Corn purchasing price trends at Jinzhou Port and Northeast deep-processing enterprises have converged in recent years. As two major consumption channels for Northeast corn, Jinzhou Port and deep-processing enterprises exhibit a strong consistency in price movements. Data analysis shows a correlation coefficient of 0.97 between Jinzhou Port prices and the average purchase prices of deep-processing enterprises in recent years, indicating a high positive correlation and highly aligned trends. The price differential between the two further illustrates the competitive relationship between ports and processors for Northeast corn. Statistical data shows the average price difference in recent years was 113 yuan per ton, roughly equivalent to the average freight cost from the three Northeastern provinces to Jinzhou Port. This price gap also exhibits seasonal characteristics, with lows typically occurring in July-August. This period coincides with seasonal maintenance shutdowns at processing plants, reducing their demand as they primarily consume existing inventories and contracted grain. Ports are also in a destocking phase during this time, leading to reduced demand for corn from production areas and a more relaxed competitive dynamic. Price gaps tend to widen in the first and fourth quarters, coinciding with the peak supply period from production areas, intensifying competition between ports and processors seeking to lower procurement costs.
Purchasing volumes of corn at ports and Northeast deep-processing enterprises have increased in recent years. Driven by rising corn output in production areas and expanding capacity in deep-processing and livestock sectors, the overall purchasing volume at the Jinzhou and Bayuquan ports and Northeast deep-processing enterprises has shown a growth trend. Monitoring data shows that from January to April 2026, total corn purchases at the two ports and sampled Northeast deep-processing enterprises were 7.56 million tons and 7.79 million tons, representing year-on-year changes of -12% and +14%, respectively. The increase for processors is attributed to strong price support sentiment among local farmers and traders in production areas, coupled with improved processing margins, prompting active procurement and inventory building. The decrease in port purchases is mainly due to poor shipping margins for port trading companies and tepid, need-based demand from southern regions. Purchasing volumes for both ports and processors typically peak from October to March of the following year, with other periods characterized by continuous inventory drawdowns.
Demand from deep-processing enterprises and ports is expected to remain weak in May-June, with corn prices lacking positive support. Due to poor profitability in the end-user livestock sector, the availability of imported substitutes, and the gradual market entry of new-season wheat, feed corn demand in southern regions may be constrained. Demand at southern ports is expected to decrease from mid-May through late June, with feed enterprises likely to purchase based on immediate needs only. In the Northeast production areas, local grain supplies are nearing depletion. Deep-processing enterprises will gradually consume inventories and contracted grain, with limited new demand expected, maintaining a pattern of rolling replenishment. Port inventory at Jinzhou and Bayuquan was slowly accumulating by the end of April, while average corn inventory days at Northeast deep-processing enterprises were largely flat year-on-year. Overall, corn demand in the Northeast shows a weakening trend for May-June.
Furthermore, market focus remains on news regarding the release of targeted feed-use rice and the potential implications of the U.S. President's visit to China, both of which could negatively impact future corn demand. The targeted rice release is expected to directly affect feed corn demand in June. Any increase in U.S. corn imports would depend primarily on adjustments to national import policies. If import volumes are expected to rise, the short-term impact would likely be on the willingness of trading companies in Northeast production areas to release stocks, while the long-term effect could influence substantive consumption in the next production season.
In summary, a strong connection exists between the corn purchasing prices and volumes at ports and deep-processing enterprises in the Northeast production area in recent years. Due to weak end-user demand and the expected increase in substitution from imported alternatives and new-season wheat for feed use, demand for Northeast corn from ports and deep-processing enterprises is likely to decline from mid-May through late June. Corn prices are expected to trend weaker, with purchase prices at ports and processors potentially declining cumulatively by around 20 yuan per ton.
Risk factors include the release of targeted feed-use rice, substitution by new-season wheat, and adjustments to corn import policies.