Abstract
VEON Ltd will report first-quarter results on May 13, 2026 Pre-Market, with the market looking for revenue and earnings acceleration supported by digital initiatives and network investments across key operating markets.Market Forecast
Consensus points to VEON Ltd delivering approximately 1.16 billion US dollars in first-quarter revenue, implying 16.83% year-over-year growth, alongside an estimated EPS of 1.33, up 60.24% year-over-year; EBIT is projected at 297.50 million US dollars, up 34.01% year-over-year. Forecasts do not include explicit gross margin or net margin guidance for the quarter.The core connectivity and infrastructure business remains the main revenue engine, with management efforts focused on network capacity and service quality to sustain volume and pricing. Digital services are positioned as the most promising growth vector, with segment revenue of 759.00 million US dollars last quarter and continued momentum anticipated given product expansion and ecosystem partnerships; year-over-year growth by segment was not disclosed.
Last Quarter Review
VEON Ltd’s prior quarter delivered revenue of 1.17 billion US dollars (up 17.34% year-over-year), a gross profit margin of 86.34%, GAAP net loss attributable to shareholders of 31.00 million US dollars with a net profit margin of -2.65%, and adjusted EPS of -0.44 (down 144.90% year-over-year). A notable financial highlight was the sequential improvement in net profit, which increased 76.34% quarter-on-quarter despite remaining negative.Main-business composition showed connectivity and infrastructure contributing 3.64 billion US dollars while direct digital contributed 759.00 million US dollars, and total revenue advanced 17.34% year-over-year on the back of ongoing network investment, product uptake, and improving monetization across core services.
Current Quarter Outlook
Core Connectivity and Infrastructure
The core connectivity and infrastructure franchise is expected to carry the top line again this quarter, with group revenue forecast at 1.16 billion US dollars and year-over-year growth of 16.83%. Management’s recent updates emphasize capacity expansion and quality improvements across networks, which are consistent with the uptick in revenue growth seen last quarter. Sustained execution around pricing discipline and bundle upgrades can support average revenue per user and mix, particularly in markets where network enhancements translate into higher data usage and value-based tariffs. On the cost side, improved utilization and operating leverage from prior capital expenditure should aid EBIT delivery toward the projected 297.50 million US dollars (+34.01% year-over-year), even in the absence of formal gross-margin guidance for the quarter. The net margin profile is sensitive to financing and currency, but the previous-quarter pattern—strong gross margin with a headline net loss—suggests management focus remains on operating profitability and cash conversion to close the gap at the bottom line.From a commercial standpoint, the company’s connectivity and infrastructure engine continues to benefit from multiyear investment commitments and targeted expansions in priority markets. Management disclosures this spring highlighted cumulative investment programs designed to increase coverage and network resilience, which are intended to underpin subscriber additions and data monetization. Near-term, investors should watch conversion of new and upgraded customers into higher-value tiers as a lever for maintaining top-line momentum while protecting margins through scale efficiencies.
Digital Services and Platforms
Digital services and platforms represent the company’s clearest structural growth opportunity and are central to this quarter’s narrative. The segment’s revenue base was 759.00 million US dollars last quarter, and management communications this year point to continued expansion through product adoption, cross-selling, and ecosystem partnerships. The publication of the 2025 Integrated Annual Report in April highlighted record digital growth for the year, reinforcing expectations that digital will outpace the group’s aggregate growth rate again. In practical terms, this momentum can drive both direct revenue and indirect benefits to the connectivity business by increasing engagement, reducing churn, and enabling differentiated bundles.Operational levers for digital growth this quarter include expanding the reach of value-added services, deepening the integration of financial and lifestyle apps, and strengthening distribution channels. The company’s announcement of ecosystem initiatives in its markets underscores a strategy of embedding digital tools within daily user behavior, which can raise frequency of use and increase revenue per user. While formal year-over-year percentage growth for the digital segment this quarter has not been disclosed, management’s tone and recent product moves imply continued double-digit expansion is plausible relative to the group’s forecast trajectory.
Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
The first major driver is execution against the earnings algorithm—specifically, whether revenue growth near 16.83% year-over-year converts into the projected 34.01% year-over-year EBIT expansion and a 60.24% uplift in EPS. Delivery on this spread would indicate operating leverage from investments and opex discipline, which could prompt positive estimate revisions and support valuation. Conversely, slippage on opex or unexpected financing expenses could compress the pathway from gross margin to net income, a point worth monitoring given last quarter’s negative net margin despite a robust 86.34% gross margin.The second driver is commercialization of ecosystem partnerships and adjacent offerings that enhance the addressable market and stickiness. Recent communications around digital initiatives and mobility ecosystem expansion illustrate a strategy to broaden the service suite and user engagement. Success here would likely show up in both digital revenue growth and lower churn in the connectivity base. Moreover, network collaborations and service launches planned for 2026 can serve as early catalysts for investor sentiment if pilot milestones and adoption metrics track ahead of expectations.
The third driver is capital allocation and investment cadence, particularly in high-potential markets where incremental network and platform investments aim to generate outsized returns. Management has communicated substantial multi-year investment across its footprint, and confirmation of deployment milestones this quarter can influence the market’s confidence in the medium-term earnings outlook. Investors will pay attention to how CAPEX intensity translates into service quality metrics, user growth, and monetization, as well as any commentary on funding flexibility that could affect net interest costs and, ultimately, net margins.
Analyst Opinions
Bullish views dominate the recent institutional commentary set, yielding a 100% bullish to 0% bearish ratio among identifiable stances within the January 1, 2026 to May 6, 2026 window. Rothschild & Co Redburn initiated VEON at Buy with a 74.16 US dollars price target on April 16, 2026, highlighting conviction in the company’s earnings trajectory and the strategic upside embedded in its digital ecosystem and capital deployment program. This position aligns with the fundamental setup for the quarter: revenue growth projected at 16.83% year-over-year, a sharp 34.01% expansion in EBIT, and EPS expected to advance 60.24% year-over-year, all of which indicate potential operating leverage as management scales platforms and optimizes costs.The bullish case centers on three planks. First, the forecast spread between revenue growth and EBIT growth implies efficiency gains and mix enhancement, potentially reflecting the benefits of recent network upgrades and improved commercial execution. Second, the digital suite’s momentum, evidenced by the company’s declaration of record digital growth in 2025 and ongoing ecosystem partnerships, suggests a sustained contribution to both top-line expansion and customer lifetime value. Third, targeted investments and management actions in priority markets provide a tangible framework for continued growth and margin recovery, which supports the scenario of sequential improvement from last quarter’s negative net margin toward a more balanced P&L.
Analysts leaning positive also point to identifiable catalysts in the near term. Execution on the 1.16 billion US dollars revenue target, with clear confirmation of operating leverage into the 297.50 million US dollars EBIT estimate, would validate the model upgrades embedded in current expectations. Progress updates on digital products and ecosystem integrations, especially those planned for 2026, can bolster confidence that the faster-growing portfolio will continue to take share within the company’s revenue mix. Finally, any commentary that frames a path from high gross margin to improving net profitability—through cost optimization, interest expense management, or FX mitigation—could add incremental support to bullish stances.
On balance, given the absence of identified bearish calls in the period and the presence of a notable Buy initiation with a defined target, the majority view is constructive into the print. The market will be focused on whether VEON Ltd’s reported metrics align with the forecasted revenue and earnings lift and whether management provides incremental clarity on the profitability bridge from gross margin to net income. If the company delivers on these elements and articulates a credible trajectory for the digital business to compound ahead of the group rate, bulls argue that estimate revisions and multiple support are both attainable outcomes in the quarters ahead.