Europe may have to reduce its natural gas consumption by 7% year-on-year this winter, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

Storage levels are currently low, and the region's energy resilience weakens once the heating season begins.

The European Union's full ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports starting in January of the following year compounds this pressure.

The institute estimates that if demand is not reduced and the storage shortfall is instead covered by additional gas imports, the cost would reach 3 billion euros.

With the conflict in Iran driving up global gas prices, this procurement cost is 12% higher than an equivalent purchase in 2025.

As a result, IEEFA says, "increased reliance on storage facilities" has become a major "financial burden" for Europe.

Data from Eurostat shows that the share of winter gas demand met by storage has risen from 25% in 2021-22 to 30% in 2025-26, peaking at a five-year high of 33% in 2024-25.

This means that in absolute terms, gas withdrawals from storage in 2024-25 were about 50% higher than in the previous two winters.