In the futures market, the corn 2607 contract closed last week at 2,351 yuan per ton, marking a weekly increase of 28 yuan, or 1.21%. The starch 2607 contract settled at 2,725 yuan per ton, rising 26 yuan from the previous week, a gain of 0.96%.

In the spot market, the corn price at the Bayuquan port was 2,270 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan week-on-week. The spot basis for the C2607 contract was +19, a decrease of 8 points from the prior week. In the Jilin region, the spot price for corn starch held steady at 2,830 yuan per ton. The spot basis for the CS2607 contract was +105, down 26 points from the previous week.

Corn Market Dynamics

On the supply side, China's corn imports for April 2026 totaled 50,000 tons, representing a month-on-month decrease of 77.27% and a year-on-year drop of 73%.

Regarding demand, data from June 4 to June 11 shows that 149 major corn deep-processing enterprises across the country consumed a total of 1.3519 million tons of corn, an increase of 5,600 tons compared to the prior week.

Inventory data reveals a mixed picture. A survey of 47 large-scale feed mills indicates that as of June 11, the average corn inventory held by feed enterprises was sufficient for 27.13 days of use. This represents a week-on-week decline of 0.32 days, or 1.17%, and a significant year-on-year decrease of 19.01%.

Total corn inventories at 96 major deep-processing enterprises nationwide stood at 4.316 million tons, down 2.53% from the previous week and 7.20% lower than the same period last year.

Inventory at the four major northern ports totaled 3.119 million tons, a weekly decrease of 10,000 tons. Outbound shipments from these ports for the week amounted to 191,000 tons, a substantial drop of 223,000 tons from the prior week.

Domestic corn inventory at Guangdong port was 262,000 tons, down 49,000 tons week-on-week. Imported corn stocks at the port were 20,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons.

Starch Market Overview

Supply data from sample statistics shows the national corn processing volume was 650,500 tons, an increase of 10,900 tons from the previous week. Weekly national corn starch output reached 341,400 tons, up 8,000 tons. The weekly operating rate rose to 62.4%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points.

As of June 10, total starch inventories at corn starch enterprises nationwide were 1.227 million tons, a decrease of 56,000 tons from the prior week. This represents a weekly decline of 4.36%, a monthly drop of 7.05%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.78%.

Profitability showed some regional variation. This week, the profit for Jilin corn starch, net of by-products, was -36 yuan per ton, an improvement of 19 yuan from last week. In Shandong, the net profit remained unchanged at -136 yuan per ton. In Heilongjiang, the net profit was -169 yuan per ton, a slight improvement of 3 yuan from the previous week.

Global Market Context

Internationally, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's export sales report for the week ending June 4 showed net U.S. corn export sales for the current marketing year at 1.00 million metric tons. This was 13% higher than the previous week but 15% below the prior four-week average.

U.S. corn export shipments for the week were 1.916 million metric tons, up 11% from the week before and 19% above the four-week average. New sales for the current marketing year were 1.096 million metric tons, with new sales for the next marketing year at 971,000 metric tons.

Domestic Market Analysis

On the domestic supply front, the gradual auction of aging rice reserves has led to widespread adoption of rice and brown rice blends as substitutes for corn in feed formulations in Northeast China, suppressing direct corn consumption demand.

Concurrently, the new-season wheat harvest in North China has led to a temporary contraction in regional corn circulation and supply.

On the demand side, the concentrated arrival of new wheat in the market, coupled with increased arrivals of imported grains, has amplified substitution effects. This has significantly diverted consumption away from corn.

Downstream feed enterprises exhibit weak purchasing intent, generally adopting a strategy of pushing prices lower. Market activity is limited to sporadic inventory replenishment, resulting in a subdued trading atmosphere.

Looking ahead, the pace of new wheat market entries and developments in brown rice auctions will be critical factors to monitor. Additionally, ongoing observation of overall market trading activity and inventory trends across the supply chain will be essential.

Market Outlook and Risks

The market outlook is assessed as neutral. A key risk to monitor is the extent of substitution by alternative grains, which continues to influence corn demand dynamics.