The nearly two-week-long military confrontation between the United States and Iran has entered a brief truce. After President Donald Trump ordered a halt to airstrikes due to concerns over dwindling air defense missile stockpiles and diplomatic considerations, Iran subsequently announced it would suspend its retaliatory strikes.

This shift in momentum began this Thursday. According to reports from China Central Television, after receiving a new military plan for operations against Iran, Trump did not approve it and directly ordered a suspension of the daily airstrikes that had been ongoing for 13 days. Iranian Army spokesman Akraminia later confirmed that after the US stopped its strikes for the past two nights, Iran's retaliatory actions also ceased. He characterized this strategy as "retaliatory deterrence," aimed at forcing the United States to comply with relevant memorandums of understanding.

The brief pause in the conflict directly impacts the pricing logic of global commodity markets. Previously, with the Strait of Hormuz—a vital chokepoint carrying roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and gas transport—becoming a central battleground, international crude oil prices surged to $100 per barrel this week, hitting a two-month high. Investors are now closely watching whether diplomatic engagement can resolve the prolonged crisis of the strait's blockade, thereby eliminating a major source of uncertainty in the energy supply chain.

The forces behind this bilateral ceasefire are operating on two parallel tracks. On one hand, preliminary talks between Iran and Oman in Tehran at the deputy foreign minister level regarding the management of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz have made headway, creating space for a resumption of diplomacy. On the other hand, the Pentagon's internal concerns about the rapid depletion of US air defense interceptor stockpiles in the Middle East form a practical constraint limiting the expansion of US military strikes.

Diplomatic Efforts Show Progress, Shipping Lane Remains At An Impasse

Arrangements for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz are a key indicator for observers assessing whether this round of tension can be substantively de-escalated. According to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei confirmed that from July 24 to 25, Iran and Oman held several rounds of deputy foreign minister-level talks in Tehran. The two sides discussed common principles and operational mechanisms for managing safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Baghaei described the talks as "productive" and said some progress had been made. Although the Omani delegation left Tehran on the 25th, consultations on both technical and political levels will continue. Citing sources familiar with the matter, media reports indicate that the focus of negotiations is on how to allocate shipping volumes between the southern corridor off the coast of Oman (where the US military can provide air cover) and Iranian waters. Regional sources suggest that Oman and Iran could reach an agreement by the end of this week, after which Trump will decide whether to accept the proposal.

US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz stated to the media that Trump is "leaving some space for negotiations" before deciding whether to resume strikes. However, market risks are not yet fully resolved. Baghaei emphasized that the current navigation situation for vessels in the Strait of Hormuz has not yet changed. Iranian state television also reported that the strait remains "closed."

Air Defense Ammunition Depletion Raises Inventory Concerns For The Pentagon

On the military decision-making front, the decline in US air defense ammunition stockpiles has become a key factor in the White House's calculations. Reports indicate that General Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, had prepared various action plans, including a 10 to 14-day intensive air campaign, but that plan was shelved. The report, citing two sources, points out that the US fears an escalation of the war or a more violent retaliation from Iran, which would further deplete the Pentagon's inventory of air defense interceptors in the Middle East.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine has informed the White House about the decreased stockpiles of interceptor missiles, including the Patriot and THAAD systems. Analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimate that since the conflict began, the US military has expended at least 1,500 Patriot interceptors, leaving fewer than 1,000 in inventory. The analysis suggests that significant depletion of anti-missile interceptors could weaken US deterrence capabilities in other regions around the world. President Trump himself denied concerns about the munitions shortage, stating that the US possesses far more ammunition reserves than needed.

Iran Maintains 'Retaliatory Deterrence', Warns Of Potential Ground War Risks

While the US weighs military options, the Iranian military has demonstrated a firm strategic posture. On the evening of the 25th, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps released a list of damage to US military assets, claiming it was the result of retaliatory actions against American strikes. Iranian Army spokesman Akraminia clearly stated that the current ceasefire is an active strategic choice by Iran, not a passive compromise.

Iranian Armed Forces Spokesperson Shekarchi pointed out that the US has "failed to achieve its stated goals" both in the Strait of Hormuz and in weakening Iran. He emphasized that the geographical scope of the conflict has expanded to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and that Iran's operations have covered US military targets from Jordan to countries along the Persian Gulf.

Regarding the next steps for the situation, the Iranian military indicated it is prepared for various possible scenarios. Shekarchi warned that with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visiting the United States, Iran could face large-scale airstrikes or ground military operations in the future. He specifically noted that if the US chooses to launch a ground war, its forces "will face greater vulnerability." Until the situation becomes clearer, the restraint shown by both the US and Iran remains in a fragile and dynamic balance.