Recent shipping data reveals that transit activity through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb remains notably weak, reflecting sustained market anxiety over Middle East security.
According to vessel tracking firm Kpler, only seven commodity-carrying ships traversed the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, marking a 50% decline from the previous day's total. Of these seven vessels, four were entering the waterway while three were departing.
Notably, none of these seven ships were Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) or liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers. However, the data did show one Very Large Gas Carrier, transporting propane and butane, leaving the strait via a route along the Iranian side.
Meanwhile, vessel movements through the Bab el-Mandeb also slowed slightly on Thursday compared to the prior two days. Kpler data indicates that 23 commodity ships passed through the strait that day, down from 34 in each of the preceding two days. Among them, 16 entered the strait and 7 departed.
Of the seven vessels leaving the Bab el-Mandeb, two were Suezmax tankers, identified as the "Stoic Warrior" and the "Dokos". Both tankers were carrying crude oil, bound for Vietnam and India, respectively. No VLCCs or LNG carriers transited the Bab el-Mandeb on Thursday.
It is worth noting that vessels sailing with their transponders switched off would not be reflected in these figures. Currently, with peace negotiations between Washington and Tehran still at an impasse, concerns over maritime risks in the Middle East continue to escalate.
The memorandum of understanding, previously agreed upon by the two nations to steer them toward a permanent deal, expired on Monday. As the agreement lapsed, both sides issued assertive signals, ruling out any possibility of extending the temporary accord.
On August 17, President Trump stated that Iran would not agree to the deal he deems necessary to end the hostilities, adding that Iran "should surrender." In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi remarked, "There is no 60-day ceasefire period that needs to be extended."
According to the latest reports, a US official indicated that President Trump has instructed senior government envoys to pause direct engagement with Tehran. Furthermore, Trump recently posted that the US will impose its "most severe" economic actions against Iran, threatening stiff economic penalties on any nation providing Iran with "any form of lifeline" in an effort to choke the Iranian economy.
On August 20, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the Trump administration would intensify economic pressure on Iran, threatening "unprecedented economic isolation" measures. Bessent also suggested that the administration's plan to cripple Iran's economy might render a large-scale military operation unnecessary.
Analysts point out that while Washington demands the Strait of Hormuz return to its pre-conflict status, Tehran insists on formal recognition of its dominance over the strait—a condition the US cannot accept. Given these fundamentally conflicting positions on the waterway, and with neither side willing to concede, experts predict that the strategic contest over the strait is likely to persist for an extended period.