Abstract

StoneCo will report quarterly results on May 14, 2026 Post Market; investors are preparing for a quarter with softer revenue but firmer earnings per share as management and consensus point to resilient profitability despite top-line pressures.

Market Forecast

For the forthcoming quarter, current estimates point to revenue of approximately 656.45 million US dollars, implying a 3.44% year-over-year decrease, with EBIT around 321.64 million US dollars (down 6.68% year over year) and adjusted EPS estimated at 2.23 (up 24.13% year over year). No formal guidance for gross profit margin or net profit margin is available, but the earnings mix suggests margin stability even with revenue softness. The core revenue engine remains financial income and payment-related activities, where spread management and funding costs will set the tone for margins and earnings quality. Among business lines, “Financial income” carries the largest revenue base at an estimated 1.86 billion US dollars in the last reported breakdown, while “Transaction activities and other services” contributed roughly 461.68 million US dollars; year-over-year segment growth rates were not disclosed in the available dataset.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, StoneCo delivered revenue of 690.09 million US dollars (up 3.21% year over year), a gross profit margin of 74.25%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 92.59 million US dollars, a net profit margin of 14.12%, and adjusted EPS of 2.87 (up 26.99% year over year). Quarter-on-quarter, net profit contracted by 29.26%, reflecting seasonality and a tougher spread environment that weighed on bottom-line momentum despite healthy year-over-year EPS growth. A key financial highlight was the strong gross margin profile at 74.25%, indicating effective funding and pricing discipline even as volume and mix shifted. Within the revenue mix, “Financial income” contributed about 1.86 billion US dollars, “Transaction activities and other services” about 461.68 million US dollars, “Subscription services and equipment rental” about 164.68 million US dollars, and “Other financial income” about 139.65 million US dollars; segment-level year-over-year growth rates were not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core payments and financial services

The central driver for the upcoming print is the spread earned on prepayment and receivables, along with the fee and take-rate structure embedded in StoneCo’s payments franchise. The forecast revenue decline of 3.44% year over year contrasts with a 24.13% year-over-year rise in adjusted EPS, pointing to a margin-protective quarter where cost discipline and funding optimization offset softer top-line trends. The prior quarter’s 74.25% gross margin and 14.12% net margin set a high base; sustaining something close to that level hinges on controlling funding costs and maintaining pricing power on transaction volumes. Operating leverage should be visible in opex lines, particularly after headcount and cost actions implemented earlier this year, which are aimed at tightening operating expenses without impairing client acquisition and service levels. The net effect is likely to be an EBIT line of about 321.64 million US dollars, which, despite a 6.68% year-over-year step down on the estimate, still supports the double-digit EPS growth forecast given lower non-operating and tax headwinds in the base. Investors will also watch the balance between volume growth and yields; even modest volume expansion can sustain revenue if blended take rates hold, while improving collections and credit performance can protect net revenue from erosion due to provisions.

Subscriptions, equipment, and adjacent services

Subscription services and equipment rental remain a complementary growth lever with the potential to lift average revenue per client and deepen product penetration. Although its revenue contribution (about 164.68 million US dollars in the latest breakdown) is smaller than core financial income, it is a strategic tool for monetization beyond pure acquiring, allowing the firm to capture more share of wallet through software and hardware bundles. The health of this line will be assessed through attach rates to new merchants and churn metrics from the existing base. Cross-selling into the installed merchant footprint can support this segment even in periods of slower overall payment volume growth, given its more recurring profile. Pricing discipline on subscriptions, coupled with careful hardware subsidy management, can protect gross margins and mitigate pressure from funding costs in the core. In the quarter ahead, qualitative signals on attach rates, new product uptake, and the pipeline for software modules may be as important as headline revenue growth, because they inform medium-term margin and lifetime value trajectories.

What will move the stock this quarter

Three variables are poised to dominate the share-price reaction. First, the spread between funding costs and financial income drives gross margin and, ultimately, net profitability; any indication that funding costs have plateaued or that the company can further optimize working capital and prepayment pricing would support the path to the 24.13% year-over-year EPS growth estimate. Second, the cadence of operating expense control matters; recent workforce and cost actions should translate into lower run-rate expenses, and investors will look for confirmation in selling, general, and administrative trends and the ratio of operating expenses to net revenue. Third, guidance and commentary for the next quarter will shape revisions: if management frames revenue headwinds as transitory while validating margin resilience, the market may lean toward the EPS trajectory and discount the modest top-line decline. Beyond the headline P&L, quality-of-earnings details are critical. The balance between financial income and transactional revenue influences the sustainability of margins; heavy reliance on spread income can amplify sensitivity to funding costs, while a broader mix reduces volatility. Asset quality in any merchant credit or prepayment exposures can also affect provision expenses; steady delinquency metrics would reinforce the narrative behind the EPS estimate. Finally, foreign exchange translation can skew US dollar-denominated top-line comparisons; investors may focus more on margin and EPS trends, which are less sensitive to translation noise than revenue.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish views were the majority during the period under review, with positive ratings outnumbering negative and neutral opinions by approximately 3 to 1. Bank of America Securities maintained a Buy rating with a 25 US dollars price target, citing an earnings profile supported by margin management and disciplined expense controls. BTIG Research initiated coverage with a Buy and a 22 US dollars target, emphasizing that operating efficiency and product expansion can lift earnings per share even if revenue growth slows near-term. UBS maintained a Buy while fine-tuning its target to 19 US dollars, framing the investment case around resilient profitability and improving cash generation. What these constructive calls have in common is a focus on the earnings geometry of the upcoming quarter: estimates suggest revenue near 656.45 million US dollars, down 3.44% year over year, yet adjusted EPS expected at 2.23, up 24.13% year over year. This divergence reflects anticipated stability in gross margin drivers and tighter operating discipline, which several bullish analysts view as sufficient to outweigh the modest top-line pressure. The positive camp also highlights the company’s ability to refine funding sources and manage pricing, which in turn supports consistent net interest–linked income and protects total margin. On balance, the bullish consensus expects the company to meet or exceed the core profitability metrics embedded in current estimates, with the EBIT line near 321.64 million US dollars providing enough cushion for the EPS beat case if opex and funding costs come in better than feared. Analysts also point to product breadth—payments, financial income streams, and subscriptions/equipment—as a structural advantage for monetization across the merchant base. In the near term, they expect management commentary to validate that the quarter’s revenue softness is manageable and that the pathway to profitable growth remains intact through a combination of pricing discipline, cost control, and product cross-sell that shores up the bottom line.