Where to begin

US President Donald Trump is again turning to Middle East diplomacy, attempting to strike a deal with Iran after multiple rounds of military strikes by his administration failed to achieve that goal. Trump claims US-Iran negotiations will restart on Monday, but the talks face a difficult start from the outset.

Iran has denied that any negotiations with the United States have resumed. Meanwhile, it is pushing forward with bilateral consultations with Oman regarding shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Previous diplomatic efforts have all failed, creating a recurring cycle: the US threatens large-scale military action, only to call it off at the last minute. This scenario has played out at least five times since April.

Gregory Brew, an Iran analyst at Eurasia Group, says the United States is both inside and outside the Omani-Iranian negotiation process. Tehran does not acknowledge that the US has any say in the management of the Strait's shipping lanes. However, the resumption of normal shipping through the Strait depends on Washington lifting its naval blockade.

“Iran’s position is very clear: unless the US de-escalates, lifts the blockade, and likely makes other concessions, it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz,” Brew said in an interview on Monday.

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Jason Campbell, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, analyses that Iran hopes to reach an agreement with Oman that gains support from other Gulf states, then use that as leverage to pressure the US to lift its naval blockade. “Iran will convey a message not only to Oman and its neighboring countries, but also to the entire world: the only obstacle to free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz right now is the US naval blockade,” Campbell said. “From a geopolitical perspective, and due to a lack of trust in the Trump administration, I believe Iran has almost no willingness to negotiate with the US at this stage, even though Trump repeatedly claims talks are progressing.”

Trump stated on Monday that US-Iran diplomatic talks are underway, initiated at Iran’s request, and that the negotiations will “have results soon, regardless of the outcome.” Speaking in the Oval Office, Trump said, “It’s not complicated. We are consulting on the Strait, aiming to open the shipping lanes. The best scenario would be full navigation by tomorrow. That’s phase one. In phase two, we will discuss nuclear capabilities, pushing for Iran’s denuclearization.” When asked what distinguishes this round of talks from previous rounds, he responded, “Before implementing a decisive strike, I am willing to give them every last chance. The public will know the progress of the talks within the next day or two.”

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei, in an interview with Iranian state media, said the core of the Iran-Oman negotiations is to establish a new shipping route for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, and the two countries have already exchanged maps of potential routes. Baghaei emphasized that shipping through the Strait cannot return to its pre-war normal state, which is precisely the bottom-line demand of US negotiators. Although Trump repeatedly claims the US controls the waterway, shipping rules have, in fact, been dominated by Iran over the past few months.

There are two routes for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz: the northern route, closer to the Iranian coast, requires permission from Tehran and takes up to 48 hours one way; the other route, near the Omani coast, exposes vessels to the risk of mines and aerial attacks. Data from international shipping analytics firm Kpler shows that shipping through the Strait remains restricted: only 9 vessels successfully passed through on Sunday, a sharp drop from 23 on Friday, with 7 of them choosing the route near Iran.

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Brew explains that the Iran-Oman talks are exploring two options. The first is to designate a completely new shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz. The second option establishes a new transit mechanism: vessels enter the Persian Gulf via the Iranian-side route and exit via the Omani-side route. “Essentially, it’s a coordination mechanism for jointly managing shipping,” Brew added. He believes the second option has a higher probability of reaching an agreement.

Oman, which has long served as a mediator between the US and Iran, now finds itself in a difficult position. Oman shares the Strait of Hormuz with Iran, giving it a practical interest in reaching an agreement. However, it also faces immense pressure from the US and the Gulf Cooperation Council not to make too many concessions to Tehran. “Any plan must gain the recognition of regional countries and the United States. As I said, the US also needs to find a way out of its current standoff with Iran. Even if Iran and Oman finalize a Strait management plan, Iran will not take any steps to open the shipping lanes until the US backs down.”

Trump said the US will never allow Iran to collect tolls from vessels passing through the Strait and again mentioned the US naval blockade. Referring to the blockade on Monday, Trump said, “Outsiders call it a steel wall, a steel wall built by the United States.” The US Central Command reported on Monday that since the blockade was reinstated on July 14, US forces have forced 44 merchant ships to change course, preventing them from entering or leaving Iranian ports; disabled two ships, and boarded and inspected two other oil tankers to ensure the blockade is enforced.

Trump claimed that before shifting to diplomacy over the weekend, the US military was prepared to launch the most intense military strikes since World War II. Ultimately, after calls from allies including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, he called off the military operation plan. Brew believes the US reluctance to escalate the situation militarily reflects a lack of good options for the Trump administration. This repeated wavering has also shown the Iranian leadership that Trump wants to avoid a large-scale war and is seeking a diplomatic exit.

A clear path to de-escalation would be for the US to accept Iran’s demands on the Strait, but Washington has so far refused to compromise, insisting that any deal must include concessions from Iran on the nuclear issue. The longer the standoff continues, the more pressure the Trump administration faces: rising oil prices, declining approval ratings, depleted ammunition reserves, and congressional discontent. Another path is military escalation, supported by hawks inside and outside Congress. But Brew warns: even if the US military inflicts heavy damage on Iranian targets, Tehran has proven it has the means to retaliate and destroy regional infrastructure. “This is the core reason the US has delayed escalation, not just in recent weeks, but for months. It’s also why Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states called Trump over the weekend.”

Campbell of the Middle East Institute says Gulf states likely conveyed to the US that large-scale strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure would yield little strategic benefit and would further alienate regional allies. At the same time, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman may have mentioned Saudi Arabia’s pledged massive investment projects in the US to exert influence. “I believe Saudi Arabia is using economic leverage to pressure Trump to reconsider the strikes planned for last weekend.” “It’s not just Saudi Arabia. The entire Gulf region is disappointed with developments over the past few months. Especially regarding war progress and the prospects for negotiations, Gulf states feel they cannot influence White House decision-making. So far, the brunt of various Iranian retaliatory attacks has been borne by the Gulf states.”

On the other side, Iran hawks within Trump’s diplomatic team argue that only military force can break Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz. Retired Army General Jack Keane, speaking on Fox News on Monday, said, “Iran will try to be vague and retain some control over the Strait. Such an outcome would be unacceptable to the Trump administration, let alone for subsequent nuclear talks. The nuclear issue is no less difficult than the current Strait of Hormuz dilemma.”