Market Analysis: Gold and Oil Extend Losses as Geopolitical Tensions Ease

Deep News
Jul 28

Gold prices have adopted a bearish structure in evening trading, with the latest market trends pointing to further downside pressure. As of Tuesday morning in Asia, spot gold was trading near $4,075 per ounce, rebounding slightly after a volatile session. On Monday, the precious metal touched an intraday high above $4,115, supported by a sharp decline in oil prices and a modest weakening of the U.S. dollar. The catalyst for the move was a temporary halt in military strikes between the United States and Iran, which eased fears of disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Gold settled Monday at $4,076.45, up 0.57% for the session.

Technical Analysis for Gold: Monday's chart showed a clear pattern of a rally followed by weakness. The market opened higher near $4,091 due to the news catalyst, briefly spiked to $4,116, but then saw heavy selling pressure as long positions were liquidated, driving prices into a sustained decline. The session low was recorded at $4,065, and the price consolidated in a narrow range before closing at $4,076, forming a bearish candle with a long upper wick. This candlestick formation signals significant overhead supply and a rapid exhaustion of bullish momentum, suggesting a lack of upward breakout potential in the near term. On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are flattening horizontally, with gold trading consistently below the middle band, which acts as a clear resistance level. The core resistance zone is identified between $4,105 and $4,116, while support is found at the lower band. On the 4-hour chart, the bands are contracting, and the price has repeatedly failed to sustain levels above $4,130, maintaining a weak bias with $4,020 as a key support. The hourly chart shows the Bollinger Bands narrowing significantly, with the price failing to hold above the middle band after the drop from $4,116, indicating poor recovery momentum. The short-term support is at $4,030. With all three timeframes showing converging resistance, the short-term outlook is clearly bearish. The recommended strategy is to maintain a selling-on-rallies approach unless the price can clearly break above the $4,120 resistance. An early session bounce toward $4,090 provides a fresh selling opportunity, with a short-term downside target of $4,030. For today's trading strategy, the focus is on selling into strength with a key resistance zone between $4,080 and $4,110, while support is seen between $4,020 and $3,990, where buying on dips could be considered.

Oil Market Trends and Analysis: In the crude oil market, prices have fallen sharply in evening trading, continuing a weak trend. As of Tuesday morning in Asia, U.S. crude oil was trading near $81.87 per barrel, posting a significant decline. On Monday, prices fell by 9.46%, hitting their lowest level since mid-July. The key driver was the U.S. decision to pause its airstrikes on Iran over the weekend. President Trump stated that the two sides are engaged in "good talks" and are close to reaching an agreement, fueling market hopes for a diplomatic resolution and a resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil settled Monday at $87.79 per barrel, down 10.76%, while WTI crude settled at $81.91, down 9.46%.

Technical Analysis for Oil: On the daily chart, the moving average system is turning upward, indicating a change in the medium-term downtrend. The price has seen a series of consecutive bullish candles, showing strong upside momentum. While a new directional trend is not yet confirmed, the bearish phase appears to have ended temporarily. The medium-term outlook is expected to maintain a rebound pattern. On the 1-hour chart, the short-term trend is clearly bearish, with prices continuously breaking new lows. The moving averages are in a bearish alignment, and the momentum is in favor of sellers. The price is printing small bearish candles, and in early Asian trade, it has already made a new low, continuing the dominant downward trend. The intraday bias is expected to remain lower. For today's trading strategy, the recommended approach is to sell on rallies, with a key resistance zone between $83.0 and $85.0, and a support zone between $79.0 and $77.0, where buying on dips could be considered.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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