Market Self-Correction Emerges as Brokerages Accelerate Buyback Programs, Signaling Potential Revaluation

Deep News
Aug 12

A major action was announced on the evening of August 10, when Guolian Minsheng Securities disclosed a plan to repurchase A-share shares using its own funds through centralized bidding, with a total repurchase amount ranging from a minimum of 100 million yuan to a maximum of 200 million yuan, at a price not exceeding 13 yuan per share. Following this trend, several other brokerages have also recently released share repurchase plans or disclosed their progress. Changjiang Securities previously announced its intention to use 100 million to 200 million yuan of its own funds to repurchase company shares. Hua'an Securities plans to repurchase between 100 million and 200 million yuan, while Guojin Securities intends to repurchase 150 million to 300 million yuan. In addition, shareholders of brokerage firms are actively increasing their holdings. On August 3, the controlling shareholder of Soochow Securities, Suzhou Guofa Group, announced plans to increase its stake in the company, with the total amount of the increase ranging from no less than 100 million yuan to no more than 200 million yuan. At the end of July, Fujian Investment Group, a shareholder of Industrial Securities, announced its intention to increase its shareholding by 30 million to 60 million yuan.

According to announcements from listed brokerages, the essence of both repurchases and stake increases is a proactive correction of the severe mismatch between the industry's strong earnings growth and its undervalued market prices. Brokerages reported impressive first-half results, yet their stock prices have remained low for an extended period. The use of their own capital for buybacks, along with major shareholders investing real money, fully demonstrates their recognition of the companies' long-term value. As of August 10, the P/B and P/E ratios of the securities company index were at very low levels, sitting at the 2.64% and 22.23% percentiles of their ten-year history, respectively. The heavy allocation ratio of active equity funds at the end of the second quarter was only 0.63%, placing it at the 26% percentile of the past five years. As market styles rebalance, there is ample room for recovery in the sector.

On the other side of the valuation pressure, the brokerage sector generally reported forecasted earnings increases for the first half of the year, with prominent gains among leading firms. CITIC Securities is expected to achieve a net profit of 23.343 billion yuan in the first half, a year-on-year increase of nearly 70%. Mid- and small-cap brokerages showed strong elasticity, with Tianfeng Securities forecasting a net profit increase of 429% to 694% year-on-year. Kaiyuan Securities believes that low valuations, low allocation, and improving funding conditions are the underlying logic for the brokerage sector to generate excess returns. Furthermore, the sector's continuously improving ROE, ongoing optimization of business structures, and enhanced earnings growth potential are key drivers for raising the sector's valuation.

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Risk Warning: The Securities ETF Huabao (512000) and its linked funds passively track the CSI All-Share Securities Company Index, with a base date of June 29, 2007, and a launch date of July 15, 2013. The annual returns of the CSI All-Share Securities Company Index for 2021 to 2025 were -4.95%, -27.37%, 3.04%, 27.26%, and 2.54%, respectively. The annual volatility for 2021 to 2025 was 24.46%, 23.47%, 21.17%, 36.95%, and 20.53%, respectively. The constituent stocks of the index are adjusted according to the index compilation rules, and historical back-tested performance does not indicate future index performance. This product is issued and managed by Hua Bao Fund. The selling agency does not assume responsibility for the product's investment, redemption, or risk management. Investors should carefully read fund legal documents such as the Fund Contract, Prospectus, and Fund Product Key Facts Statement to understand the fund's risk-return characteristics and select a product suitable for their own risk tolerance. The risk rating for the Securities ETF assessed by the fund manager is R3-Medium Risk, suitable for investors with appropriateness ratings of C3 or above. The performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not guarantee the performance of this fund. Past fund performance does not predict future results. Funds carry risks; invest with caution. Selling agencies (including the fund manager's direct sales机构和 other selling agencies) conduct risk assessments on this fund in accordance with relevant laws and regulations. Investors should promptly pay attention to the suitability opinions issued by the fund manager. The suitability opinions of various selling agencies may not be consistent, and the risk level assessment results for fund products issued by fund selling agencies shall not be lower than the risk level assessment results made by the fund manager. The fund's risk-return characteristics and risk level in the fund contract may differ due to different considerations. Investors should understand the fund's risk-return situation, choose fund products carefully based on their own investment objectives, time horizon, investment experience, and risk tolerance, and bear the risks themselves. Registration of this fund by the China Securities Regulatory Commission does not imply a substantive judgment or guarantee of the fund's investment value, market prospects, or returns. Funds carry risks; invest with caution. MACD golden cross signal has formed, and these stocks show good growth trends!

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