China's National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration have jointly released the "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Coal Industry". The plan specifies that by 2030, coal's role as a basic safety net will be further strengthened, with continued optimization of production and development layouts, a higher proportion of high-quality advanced production capacity, and a more comprehensive production, supply, storage, and sales system. The capacity share of large, modern coal mines nationwide is targeted to rise to 87%. Significant improvements will be made in safe, green development and clean, efficient utilization, with deep integration of full-system intelligent construction pushing the capacity share of intelligent coal mines to 75%. The plan also calls for accelerating the formation of a diversified coal-based industrial structure, achieving a peak in coal consumption, further refining mechanisms for dynamic supply-demand balance, and notably enhancing the sector's modern governance capacity, culminating in the establishment of a modern coal industry system and a new level of high-quality development.
This plan introduces four rigid quantitative targets that directly define the industry's development boundaries for the next five years. First, the capacity share of large, modern coal mines must reach 87% by 2030, with the five major supply bases—Shanxi, Western Inner Mongolia, Eastern Inner Mongolia, Northern Shaanxi, and Xinjiang—accounting for over 80% of national output, driving out small and outdated capacity and concentrating resources among leading players. Second, the capacity share of intelligent coal mines must reach 75%, transforming intelligent mining from a demonstration project into a mandatory survival threshold. Third, the plan explicitly targets a peak in coal consumption by 2030, with long-term consumption stabilizing on a high plateau between 4.9 and 5.1 billion tonnes, shifting the industry from growth-driven competition to a zero-sum game. Fourth, it calls for the construction of flexible reserve capacity exceeding 100 million tonnes per year, establishing an adjustable supply guarantee mechanism to smooth out severe cyclical price fluctuations.
Key players in the coal sector include Beijing Enterprises Resources Ltd (00639), Power Resources Holdings Ltd (01277), China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (01088), China Coal Energy Co Ltd (01898), Yankuang Energy Group Co Ltd (01171), Yancoal Australia Ltd (03668), Mongolian Mining Corporation (00975), and China Qinfa Group Ltd (00866).
China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (01088) is positioned as the absolute leading state-owned enterprise across the entire coal value chain, covering coal, power, its own railway, port, and coal chemical operations in a closed loop. With a certified capacity of 570 million tonnes and over 85% of its coal sales under long-term contracts, its proprietary transport system significantly lowers external shipping costs, while its coal-power integration model naturally hedges against coal price fluctuations. The company is continuously deploying million-tonne-level smart mines and autonomous driving projects for open-pit mines, meeting the plan's mandatory 75% intelligent capacity target, while also advancing high-end chemical businesses like CCUS and coal-to-liquids. Its dividend policy offers strong certainty, with a pledged payout ratio of no less than 70% for 2026-2028, ensuring stable long-term dividend income. This makes it a core holding for coal sector portfolios, with its valuation increasingly converging with that of public utilities.
Yankuang Energy Group Co Ltd (01171) is simultaneously expanding in both the thermal coal and coking coal markets. Its domestic operations span the Shaanxi-Mongolia and Xinjiang bases, while overseas it holds high-quality Australian coal assets, with this diversified resource layout smoothing out regional supply-demand imbalances. The company possesses proprietary high- and low-temperature Fischer-Tropsch synthesis technology and has built four major coal chemical industrial parks, with production capacity for high-end chemical products like coal-to-liquids, olefins, and Fischer-Tropsch wax exceeding 10 million tonnes. Its downstream new materials are integrated into the new energy and battery supply chains. In 2026, it plans to complete acquisitions of large-scale thermal power, wind-solar storage, and electricity trading platform assets, transforming into an integrated energy service provider. This creates a three-dimensional growth system where thermal power provides a stable cash flow base, new energy drives growth, and chemicals offer high margins, steadily weakening its cyclical nature and strengthening its growth narrative.
Leading coal chemical company: China Risun Group Ltd (01907) expects its net profit for the first half of 2026 to grow by no less than 335% year-on-year. The company attributes this growth primarily to the combined effects of an expanded spread for fine chemical products due to rising selling prices, and the successful completion of the acquisition of Binhai Energy. The widening of the product spread is mainly driven by increased margins on its aromatics production lines.
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd (01866) has been highlighted by CICC for its advanced coal-water slurry technology, which provides a cost advantage of approximately 10% over the industry average, forming a protective moat. With the completion of capacity expansions at its Henan, Xinjiang Zhundong, and Jiangxi bases, the company's urea production capacity is expected to grow by 59% to 8.05 million tonnes by 2027. Given that urea profitability is currently at a cyclical low and prices have limited downside, this capacity expansion is anticipated to drive the company's earnings growth.