Abstract

Exelon will report its quarterly results on July 30, 2026 Pre-Market; our preview compiles the latest company guidance, model-based forecasts, and recent analyst commentary from the past six months.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, models point to revenue of 5.64 billion US dollars with a forecast adjusted EPS of 0.44 and EBIT of 1.01 billion US dollars; year over year, revenue is projected to rise 4.88%, EPS to rise 20.13%, and EBIT to rise 17.50%. Assuming a similar cost structure to the prior quarter, the gross profit margin implication is stable to slightly softer, while the net profit trend signals modest expansion given the EBIT and EPS trajectories. The company’s utility-operations mix continues to anchor the outlook, with regulated distribution and transmission driving predictability and constructive rate-case outcomes supporting earnings visibility. The most promising contributor remains the Commonwealth Edison, Pepco Holdings, and Baltimore Gas and Electric franchise areas, where combined revenue was 5.70 billion US dollars last quarter; regulatory investment programs and customer growth suggest mid-single-digit YoY growth potential this quarter.

Last Quarter Review

Exelon posted last quarter revenue of 7.24 billion US dollars, a gross profit margin of 41.42%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.92 billion US dollars, a net profit margin of 12.69%, and adjusted EPS of 0.91, with revenue up 7.86% year over year and adjusted EPS down 1.09% year over year. Quarter on quarter, net profit grew 54.71%. A notable highlight was the outperformance versus prior revenue forecasts, reflecting solid regulated tariff mechanisms and cooler weather elasticity in service territories. Main businesses included Pepco Holdings at 2.03 billion US dollars, Commonwealth Edison at 1.91 billion US dollars, Baltimore Gas and Electric at 1.83 billion US dollars, and PECO Energy at 1.49 billion US dollars, with intra-segment eliminations of -0.51 billion US dollars and other at 0.49 billion US dollars.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main regulated utility operations

Rate constructs and capital programs remain the core earnings engine this quarter. With forecast revenue at 5.64 billion US dollars and EPS at 0.44, we expect underlying performance to reflect ongoing recovery of distribution and transmission investments across Illinois, the Mid-Atlantic, and the District of Columbia jurisdictions. Weather-normalized demand appears stable, while allowed returns and trackers should mitigate commodity-price pass-through noise. Given the prior quarter’s 41.42% gross margin, incremental mix shifts toward distribution capex recovery may hold consolidated margins roughly steady, though seasonal load patterns could exert a mild drag versus the high winter quarter.

Capital deployment into grid modernization, resiliency, and reliability continues to support the rate base. Execution on these programs influences both EBIT and cash flow timing, and the quarter’s YoY EPS growth forecast of 20.13% implies operating leverage from the elevated investment base. Any variance is most likely to stem from O&M cadence, storm costs, and timing of regulatory deferrals.

On the revenue line, regulatory lag is a manageable risk given multi-year plans in key territories. We expect incremental contribution from formula rate plans and step-ups in approved revenue requirements to offset normal seasonality. The 17.50% YoY EBIT uplift embedded in the forecast suggests a balanced pathway between revenue entitlement and expense control.

Franchises with the strongest incremental growth signals

Among Exelon’s portfolios, last quarter’s largest contributors were Pepco Holdings (2.03 billion US dollars), Commonwealth Edison (1.91 billion US dollars), and Baltimore Gas and Electric (1.83 billion US dollars). These territories continue to benefit from approved grid investments, AMI enhancements, and reliability projects. We anticipate mid-single-digit revenue growth this quarter across these franchises, consistent with the consolidated revenue forecast of 4.88% growth.

Commonwealth Edison’s multiyear regulatory framework supports rate base expansion tied to grid hardening and interconnection upgrades. Pepco’s capital plan in the District of Columbia and Maryland is aligned with reliability metrics, which tends to translate into constructive outcomes during reconciliation periods. Baltimore Gas and Electric remains positioned to monetize its ongoing infrastructure programs, with customer additions and replacement work providing steady earnings contribution.

Mix-wise, the presence of trackers and decoupling mechanisms should temper volumetric risk. That insulates gross margin against weather swings, although storm response costs can create quarter-to-quarter noise. On balance, the pipeline of qualified capital projects and supportive regulatory mechanisms underpin the forecast EPS and EBIT growth.

Key stock price drivers this quarter

Regulatory cadence is the principal swing factor. The quarter’s trading reaction will be sensitive to any updates on pending or upcoming rate cases, allowed ROEs, and equity layer assumptions. Delivery on O&M efficiency and any commentary around inflation pass-through will influence the translation from EBIT to EPS.

Weather normalization and storm activity represent the second key driver. A milder-than-expected load profile could shave revenue versus plan, but decoupling and revenue adjustment mechanisms reduce downside risk; conversely, storm costs can add non-linear expense pressure. Investors will parse management’s commentary on year-to-date outage performance and restoration costs.

Capital markets and funding mix form the third driver. With elevated sector capex, visibility into long-term debt issuance, interest expense trajectory, and equity needs matters for the EPS bridge. If management reaffirms confidence in internally funded growth and disciplined financing, it strengthens the case for sustained EPS delivery in line with the 0.44 forecast for the quarter.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent notes in the past six months, the balance of views skews bullish, with a clear majority expecting Exelon to deliver on guidance and show constructive regulatory progress. The positive stance emphasizes steady rate base growth, improving earned ROEs in core jurisdictions, and manageable storm and O&M variability. The minority cautious view is focused on interest-rate sensitivity and potential timing mismatches in rate recovery, but these concerns are generally framed as transitory within multi-year plans.

Well-followed utility analysts have highlighted the company’s path to mid-single-digit consolidated revenue growth with double-digit EPS growth in the near term as regulatory mechanisms catch up to the capital investment cycle. Commentary also points to the importance of upcoming case milestones at Commonwealth Edison and Pepco, where recent outcomes and procedural calendars have leaned supportive for prudently incurred investments. On balance, the majority opinion anticipates an in-line to slight beat quarter, underpinned by the forecast YoY EPS growth of 20.13% and EBIT expansion of 17.50%, and expects management to reaffirm capital program execution and earnings cadence for the remainder of the year.