Goldman Sachs noted in a research report that since March to April, widespread logistics cost inflation has begun to emerge across the covered Chinese consumer staples stocks, with companies such as Haitian and Yihai already mentioning this. The market is also well aware that the cost advantage from locked-in packaging materials, especially PET, will gradually turn into a headwind as new procurement cycles begin in the second half of 2026.

The bank's cost tracking shows that diesel prices have risen 5% year-to-date, while the average daily price from May to date is 11% higher than the 2025 average. Historically, diesel prices have a correlation coefficient of over 0.8 with Brent crude oil prices. As a reference, Brent crude prices have surged 80% year-to-date, driving the average wholesale diesel price up 20% year-to-date.

For pure beverage companies covered by Goldman Sachs, such as Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring, and China Resources Beverage, logistics costs account for a high single-digit to low double-digit percentage of their cost of goods sold based on the bank's estimates. For other covered consumer staples companies, including frozen foods, condiments, dairy, and beer, logistics costs represent a mid-single-digit to mid-double-digit percentage of COGS. Most baijiu or value retailers have limited exposure to logistics costs.

As of May 10, diesel prices are 11% above the 2025 average, which theoretically could pose a low to high single-digit downside risk to net profit for covered companies. The impact is most significant for beer, dairy, and beverage companies, such as Tingyi and U-PRESID CHINA.