SpaceX’s shares closed at US$137.95, up 2.19%.

The session’s standout feature was an enormous US$37.61 million net-debit put spread, which overwhelmingly overshadowed a US$4.12 million call buy. This lopsided flow signals a strongly bearish institutional stance, with large traders paying substantial premium for downside protection across multiple in-the-money strikes rather than chasing the day’s upward move.

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Options Indicators

SPCX is currently showing an implied volatility of 61.06%, and with an IV percentile of 77.25%, current option pricing sits in the elevated zone, indicating volatility is relatively high versus its own recent history and that options are expensively priced. At the same time, the IV/HV ratio of 0.60 suggests implied volatility is running below realized volatility, which tempers the richness somewhat, but overall the percentile reading still points to a market charging a premium for option exposure.

The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.96.

Large Trades

A multi-leg put spread strategy with a net debit of $37.61 million was the dominant large trade, built through three bought put legs across different expirations and strikes: long 230.0 puts expiring 2026-09-18, long 180.0 puts expiring 2026-08-28, and long 210.0 puts expiring 2026-09-18. Because the structure consists of bought puts without offsetting short put legs, it reflects a put-heavy spread strategy executed for net premium outlay rather than premium collection. All three legs were in the money versus the $137.95 reference stock price, which reinforces the defensive and bearish character of the trade. Strategically, this kind of sizable net-debit put positioning points to downside protection or an outright bearish directional bet over a medium-dated horizon.

A call buy worth $4.12 million was the second highlighted trade, consisting of 8,000 contracts of the 145.0 call expiring 2026-09-18. With the stock at $137.95, the strike was out of the money at execution, making this a straightforward upside speculation or bullish exposure purchase. The buyer paid premium for convex upside participation into September 2026, suggesting a view that the stock can reclaim and exceed 145.0 over time, but the fact that this was an outright long call also means the trade was a defined-risk bullish bet rather than a hedged income strategy.

Overall, the large-trade flow in SPCX leans clearly bearish. The tone is driven primarily by the outsized net-debit put combination, which materially outweighs the bullish call buying seen elsewhere and signals either significant downside hedging demand or a strong negative directional view. While there were some bullish transactions in calls and put sales, they were comparatively smaller and did not offset the strong defensive posture implied by the biggest institutional-sized order flow, leaving the aggregate message from bulk trades decidedly cautious to negative.

Strategy Reference

For traders unwilling to post heavy margin or chase the bearish flow with long premium, a defined-risk bear put spread using the 130.0/120.0 strikes for the September 2026 cycle could express a measured downside view while keeping capital at risk capped and assignment probability on the short leg low versus current elevated IV.