Recent shipping statistics show low vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint, which has fundamentally challenged the Trump administration's repeated claims of absolute control over the waterway. White House officials have intensified their public messaging to defend the official stance, arguing that the actual transit situation is far more optimistic than public data suggests, in an effort to reverse negative perceptions of US control. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the US government possesses the most authoritative and comprehensive first-hand monitoring data, with capabilities far surpassing those of private institutions. He noted that many private shipping data agencies have significantly undercounted outbound vessels from the Strait, primarily because many ships are using stealth navigation methods that are not captured by standard monitoring systems, leading to severe data distortion. Wright released data claiming that total energy exports from the Arabian Gulf region, via both maritime and overland pipeline routes, are stable at around 15 million barrels per day, which he says reflects the true scale of regional energy transportation and is much higher than estimates based solely on ship traffic. However, this official data sharply contrasts with findings from private professional monitoring agencies. Industry insiders generally acknowledge that the movements of stealth vessels are difficult to fully verify, and while private statistics have limitations, they broadly align with actual transit conditions. Real-time data from shipping data tracker Kpler shows that only 14 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, a dramatic drop from the daily average of around 120 ships before the conflict, indicating a significant decline in shipping activity and channel efficiency. Despite repeated requests from major media outlets and professional shipping tracking agencies for Energy Secretary Wright to disclose the calculation methods, statistical scope, and monitoring details behind his high export data to verify its credibility, the US has not provided any detailed information, leaving the data's authority and accuracy widely questioned.
Who Really Controls the Strait of Hormuz? US Rhetoric Contradicted by Data
Kpler's detailed data further undermines the US narrative of control. The data shows that of the 14 ships that transited on Tuesday, 11 were using shipping routes officially recognized by Iran, which fully demonstrates that Iran still holds the actual power over passage through the Strait, directly contradicting Trump's repeated claims of exclusive US control. In a press conference on Tuesday evening, Trump remained defiant, stating, "We are in total control of the Strait of Hormuz, and it belongs to the US." On Wednesday, he reiterated this stance on his social media platform, reinforcing the US's absolute dominance and adding that Iran is "completely helpless" and unable to interfere with US control. This clash between official statements and objective data comes as the US and Iran maintain rigid and uncompromising negotiating stances, with no signs of concessions, leading to a diplomatic stalemate. The oil market has already reacted to the situation, with market participants widely believing that a viable agreement is unlikely in the short term to restore large-scale energy transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Before the conflict, this key waterway carried one-fifth of the world's crude oil, and its disruption directly impacts global energy supply chain stability, with growing concerns over supply shortages. Earlier this week, Pakistan's Defense Minister hinted at the possibility of a settlement agreement between the US and Iran, leading to a new balance. However, Trump downplayed that possibility on Tuesday evening, publicly stating, "I don't trust Iran at all. I'm the least likely person to trust Iran." This comment effectively extinguished short-term market expectations of a US-Iran détente and the reopening of the Strait.
Affected by the Strait's blockage and escalating geopolitical tensions, international energy prices have continued to rise this week. According to the American Automobile Association, the average US gasoline price has once again surpassed the $4 per gallon mark. The rising oil prices are directly increasing the cost of living for American households and are creating new pressures for domestic inflation control. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at fuel price platform GasBuddy, noted that this price increase is a record for this time of year, as the US national average gasoline price has never remained above $4 per gallon after August 12, highlighting the tension and fragility of the current energy market. Meanwhile, Trump administration officials have introduced a new argument to downplay the global significance of the Strait of Hormuz, claiming that future fluctuations in the waterway will no longer affect global energy markets. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated over the weekend, "Within the next two years, the strategic value of the Strait of Hormuz will nearly zero out, completely losing its market influence." He explained that the Middle East is currently building massive underground crude oil pipelines, which will significantly divert maritime oil transport demand and gradually replace the shipping function of the Strait of Hormuz. "At that point, this closely watched strategic waterway will just become a body of water, no longer capable of influencing the global energy landscape." This move by the US is aimed at laying the groundwork for public opinion, alleviating market anxiety over the Strait's instability, while simultaneously downplaying the negative impact of its own control failures.