On August 20, TrendForce released its weekly photovoltaic price observation, indicating that the PV module market remains primarily driven by domestic demand. Although cost pass-through from upstream silicon wafer and cell price hikes, along with policy expectations, have strengthened module makers' resolve to hold prices firm—with top-tier manufacturers raising quotes to RMB 0.72-0.75/W and second-tier players to around RMB 0.70/W—the price transmission has not been smooth. Actual mainstream transaction prices in the market remain at previous lower levels, with new quotes yet to see substantial volume execution, and low-priced modules still prevalent across the market.

As low-priced orders gradually diminish, the market's price center for modules has shifted slightly upward by about RMB 0.02/W compared to earlier levels. In the absence of sufficient overseas demand support, the module price increase is primarily cost-driven from upstream, leaving limited room for further upside. Close attention should be paid to the actual implementation of domestic policies going forward.

Polysilicon: Inventory Overhang Persists Amid Policy Anticipation

Polysilicon inventory remains above 530,000 tonnes, continuing to accumulate, with supply-demand mismatches still exerting pressure. Despite a notable uptick in quotes driven by anti-involution policy expectations and a sharp rise in downstream wafer prices—with Tongwei's dense material quotes climbing to around RMB 43/kg and GCL's granular silicon to roughly RMB 41/kg—the lack of fully detailed policy measures has left both upstream and downstream players cautious, effectively stalling trading activity. The traditional market-based supply-demand adjustment mechanism is currently unable to function effectively.

In the short term, while policy expectations have fostered a bullish sentiment, weak end-user demand and high inventories at major ingot producers mean polysilicon manufacturers hold little advantage in price negotiations. The market lacks sufficient support for a substantial price rebound.

Silicon Wafers: Strong Export Momentum, Divergent Price Trends

The silicon wafer segment has seen notable inventory destocking, with current stock levels down to around 25GW. Driven by overseas policy changes, wafer exports have increased significantly, and combined with a "buy on rising prices" market sentiment, high-priced orders have closed quickly. Prices across different wafer sizes have shown divergent trends, with 183, 210R, and 210 sizes trading at RMB 1.12, 1.15, and 1.25 per piece, respectively.

The 183mm wafers have experienced a robust price rebound due to strong overseas demand and previously low capacity utilization rates, while 210mm wafers, whose demand remains primarily domestic, have seen relatively flat performance with gains markedly below those of the 183mm size. Strong export momentum is expected to continue until mid-September, with prices likely to hold at elevated levels in the near term. However, risks of a pullback exist should exports taper off or policy implementation fall short of expectations.

Solar Cells: Tight Supply for 183mm, Optimistic but Cautious Outlook

Solar cell inventories have continued to decline, now down to around 8 days. Under policy influences, overseas demand for 183mm and 210R cells has grown rapidly. Combined with previously low capacity utilization for domestic 183mm cells, this has created a phase of tight supply-demand dynamics, pushing high-end 183mm cell prices to around RMB 0.38/W. In contrast, 210mm cells have maintained transaction prices near RMB 0.35/W, influenced by domestic utility-scale project pricing.

In the short term, sentiment in the cell market remains optimistic, but the elevated price of around RMB 0.38/W has begun to dampen purchasing intentions among some exporters. Given that polysilicon prices have yet to see substantial increases, some exporters worry about potential froth in current cell prices. If polysilicon prices confirm a stable uptrend, cell prices are likely to hold at high levels in the near term; however, if polysilicon gains fall short, cell prices could face downside risks. Market participants should monitor policy execution effectiveness and the impact of shifting export demand after mid-September.