Under the refined oil pricing rules, the next fuel price adjustment will take place at 24:00 on October 15 (next Thursday). The trajectory of this round has been full of twists and turns. On Thursday, international oil prices once plunged by more than 4%. Although international crude oil rebounded slightly on the 9th, a downward adjustment is still expected for this round.

Fuel Price Rise and Fall Forecast

On October 10, the 6th statistical day of the cycle, gasoline and diesel are expected to be cut by 225 yuan per ton and 215 yuan per ton, respectively. Converted into retail prices, 92-octane gasoline is expected to fall by 0.18 yuan per liter, 95-octane gasoline by 0.19 yuan per liter, and 0-diesel by 0.19 yuan per liter. The current estimated reduction exceeds 0.15 yuan per liter, making a cut highly likely this round and potentially bringing an end to the previous streak of three consecutive increases.

Reviewing This Year's Fuel Price Trends

Looking back at this year's fuel price movements, there are a total of 25 adjustment windows in 2026, with 19 already implemented and 6 remaining. The year has seen 13 increases, 1 pause, and 5 declines, overall with more rises than falls. Gasoline and diesel prices have cumulatively risen by nearly 2,300 yuan per ton, equivalent to an increase of 1.89 to 2.03 yuan per liter. Filling a 50-liter tank now costs 90 to 100 yuan more than at the start of the year. At present, the national average reference fuel prices are: 92-octane gasoline at 8.59 yuan per liter, 95-octane gasoline at 9.17 yuan per liter, and 0-diesel at 8.27 yuan per liter.