The CEO of Vitol Group, the world's largest independent energy commodity trader, said on Tuesday that the global energy crisis triggered by the U.S.-Iran war has entered a new phase, driven by an escalating shortage of tankers.

Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, Vitol Group CEO Russell Hardy said: "When this conflict began, we were facing a crude oil crisis. Then it evolved into a refined products crisis. Now, even though more crude is being shipped out of the Middle East, it is turning into a shipping crisis." He added that tanker charter rates have already "shown a fairly parabolic rise," and refineries are coming under pressure.

Hardy estimated that after the U.S. Navy cleared a route for tankers to enter and exit the Strait of Hormuz, about 12 million barrels per day of crude oil and 2 million barrels per day of refined fuels are now able to leave the Persian Gulf. Hardy said that without escorts, "you genuinely would see a $200-per-barrel oil price scenario, so it is very important that the escorts can continue," because "the West has no more inventories left to draw down."

At the same time, however, Hardy said this method of transportation is "very inefficient," because ships are often tied up for days or even weeks waiting for cargo, which reduces the number of tankers available in other regions.

Hardy said the resulting tanker shortage has already caused freight rates to surge and is making it increasingly difficult for traders and refiners to calculate the landed cost of crude. Refiners that cannot charter tankers, or are unwilling to pay exorbitant freight rates, are scrambling to snap up supplies that are easier to transport. An oil industry executive attending the London conference said cargoes of North Sea crude were sold at $145 per barrel last week.

European refiners have been hit particularly hard by high crude prices and freight rates, with refining margins recently turning negative, which could force refiners to cut output and further worsen supply problems for fuels such as diesel.

Hardy said: "It is very difficult to sustain this situation, and that is why market prices remain so elevated, because right now we still do not see any obvious solution."

Supply bottlenecks caused by persistently tense geopolitical conditions are keeping oil prices high. As of the time of writing, Brent crude futures were up more than 1% at $101.57 per barrel; WTI crude futures were also up more than 1% at $89.32 per barrel. There are reports that the White House has asked the Pentagon to draw up strike options against Iran, and these options could be carried out before the midterm elections. Media, citing two government officials, reported that the White House is pushing the plans, a development that contradicts what the market had widely assumed—that U.S. President Donald Trump would hold off on escalating conflict with Iran before next month's midterm elections.

Although crude flows in the Middle East have increased in recent weeks, attacks on vessels have also risen sharply, including an attack on a tanker near Qatar that reportedly caused casualties. In the Middle East, beyond the U.S.-Iran conflict, fighting between Yemeni government forces and Houthi militants has further escalated, and the Saudi-led multinational coalition has also intensified strikes against the Houthis, with the conflict showing a trend of expanding front lines and rising intensity.