According to a new report, global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expected to increase significantly by mid-century.
Shell's LNG Outlook 2026 projects that by 2050, worldwide LNG demand will reach nearly 700 million tonnes annually, representing an increase of approximately 65% from 2025 levels, as nations continue to prioritize the flexible and reliable energy security provided by natural gas and LNG.
Global LNG trade reached 422 million tonnes in 2025, with significant growth anticipated for 2026. However, since the onset of conflict in the Middle East region, severe shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have cut off around one-fifth of global LNG supply each month.
This disruption has driven up spot market prices, adversely affecting some countries in Asia.
The impact of reduced supply from the Middle East has been partially offset by new liquefaction capacity coming online in North America, improved operational efficiency at existing plants, and a slowdown in LNG imports within Asia.
Consequently, if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes this summer, total LNG trade in 2026 could match last year's levels before resuming a growth trajectory in 2027.
"The conflict in the Middle East has triggered a systemic shock with ripple effects across the economy, but the LNG industry has demonstrated resilience and an ability to adapt to changing market conditions," said Cederic Cremers, Shell's Integrated Gas & Upstream Director.
"While more investment in infrastructure on both the supply and demand sides is still needed, the long-term outlook for the industry remains strong, with LNG continuing to act as a 'stabilizer' for the global energy system."
The report forecasts that around 180 million tonnes per year of new supply capacity will enter the market by 2030, enhancing the availability and affordability of gas while unlocking demand in new markets.
Emerging demand sectors are also expanding rapidly. LNG bunkering for ships is projected to grow sevenfold to 27 million tonnes by 2035, surpassing India's total LNG imports from last year.
To meet the rising demand, substantial additional investment in new LNG liquefaction plants will be required in the 2030s and 2040s, beyond projects already under construction, with an estimated need for roughly 200 million tonnes per year of new supply.
The report notes that even during the peak of the recent Middle East crisis, when Asian LNG spot prices briefly exceeded $20 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), prices remained significantly lower than those during the supply disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, reflecting a more resilient LNG market today.
This year marks the tenth anniversary of Shell's LNG Outlook report.