United Airlines Tops Q2 Earnings Forecasts, Faces $6 Billion Fuel Cost Headwind

Deep News
Jul 16

United Airlines reported second-quarter results that surpassed Wall Street expectations on Wednesday, though surging fuel expenses continue to pressure profits.

The company's financials for the period ending June 30 compared to analyst forecasts compiled by LSEG are as follows:

Adjusted earnings per share: $1.99 versus an expected $1.88.

Revenue: $17.67 billion versus an expected $17.61 billion.

For the third quarter, the airline projects adjusted earnings per share between $2.50 and $3.50, which is below the analyst consensus of $3.60. Its full-year forecast for adjusted earnings per share is now between $9 and $11, representing the high end of its April prediction range of $7 to $11. The company had lowered its initial January forecast in April following U.S. airstrikes in Iran at the end of February.

Data from the American Automobile Association's Argus shows that jet fuel prices at major U.S. airports surged 34% in July alone through Tuesday, influenced by the fluctuating tensions in the Middle East. Fuel is an airline's second-largest expense after labor.

United stated that, compared to its expectations at the start of 2026, this year's fuel price increases could add nearly $6 billion to its costs. Its fuel expense for the second quarter jumped 84% year-over-year to $2.3 billion. These estimates are based on Tuesday's fuel prices. The company indicated it expects to recover about 90% of these new costs in the current quarter and 100% in the fourth quarter.

Rival Delta Air Lines has also stated it is passing more costs on to passengers. Both carriers report that demand remains robust despite higher fares.

Due to the extreme volatility in costs, United is updating its forecasts to incorporate the latest fuel prices. The company said fuel prices since the start of July have reduced its third-quarter adjusted earnings per share by $1.12.

In a filing, United noted it might further reduce its capacity plans for this year due to the rising fuel expenses.

The airline expanded its second-quarter flight capacity by 3.5%. Revenue grew 16% year-over-year to $17.67 billion, with total revenue per available seat mile increasing 12.1%. According to FactSet, this marks the highest unit revenue growth rate since early 2023.

The company reported increased revenue from premium cabins, corporate tickets, and its basic economy fares, with unit revenue rising on both domestic and international routes.

Net profit fell over 17% to $805 million, or $2.46 per share. Excluding one-time items, United's adjusted net income was $649 million, resulting in adjusted earnings per share of $1.99.

United Airlines executives are scheduled to hold an earnings conference call at 10:30 a.m. ET on Thursday.

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