Is Burberry Underestimated? British Retail Tycoon Bets on the Next Luxury Winner

Deep News
Jul 30

Frasers Group has become a major shareholder in both Mulberry and Hugo Boss, but the most dangerous hunters never rush, preferring to wait for the perfect moment. According to Reuters, the British retail group has recently become Burberry's third-largest shareholder, holding an economic interest of about 4.16%, up from 3.05%, drawing industry attention.

Notably, this position was built almost entirely through put options rather than direct stock purchases. If the options are exercised, Frasers will buy the corresponding shares at the agreed price, officially becoming one of Burberry's top ten shareholders. This is not just an ordinary position; for those familiar with European retail, it resembles the beginning of a familiar story.

Over the past two years, Frasers, led by Mike Ashley, has followed a similar path, entering the British luxury leather goods brand Mulberry and the German luxury group Hugo Boss, eventually becoming a major shareholder in the former and launching a full takeover bid for the latter. In 2020, Frasers first bought about 12.54% of Mulberry's shares, then increased its stake to about 37%, and proposed a full acquisition in 2024. Although the bid failed because the controlling shareholder refused to sell, Mike Ashley has become Mulberry's most influential shareholder. Similarly, Frasers' push for control of Hugo Boss has gone further. After years of building its stake, Frasers formally issued a cash takeover offer of 38 euros per share to all shareholders in June, valuing the total transaction at about 1.9 to 2 billion euros. In July, as some put options were exercised, its actual stake increased to 30.28%, triggering a mandatory offer under German takeover law. Hugo Boss's board and supervisory board have unanimously recommended that shareholders reject the offer, arguing that 38 euros per share significantly undervalues the company and is just the minimum price required by law. The group believes there is still room for valuation improvement through its own CLAIM 5 strategy. However, just two days ago, the EU formally approved the deal, removing the biggest regulatory hurdle, and the outcome now depends on how many shareholders accept the offer.

Mike Ashley has followed nearly the same path for over a decade: first building a small position, then increasing it to become a major shareholder, fighting for board influence, and finally launching a takeover at the right time. This has inevitably sparked discussion about whether Frasers might fully acquire Burberry in the future. When placing Burberry, Mulberry, and Hugo Boss together, it becomes clear that all three companies share nearly identical characteristics: they are representative European luxury brands with global recognition and historical heritage, but they face operational difficulties. Mulberry has deep British leather goods roots but is aging, with declining revenue and ongoing losses, forcing it to seek financing. Hugo Boss, while globally influential in menswear and pushing for a younger transformation, is hitting a growth bottleneck as luxury spending slows. Burberry remains the most iconic British luxury brand, but after years of changing CEOs and creative directors, its brand positioning has been unstable, leading to continuous sales declines and a market value that once fell to a 15-year low of under 3 billion pounds. The possibility of Burberry being acquired has been raised over the past decade and has heated up again since 2023, with analysts estimating the acquisition cost at around 4 billion pounds at the time. In the current luxury industry downturn, few buyers have the capacity to take over, but Frasers, coming from a different industry cycle, has growing ambitions. Its predecessor, Sports Direct, is a better reminder of the British retail tycoon's origins. Mike Ashley, now worth about 3.4 billion pounds, started as a squash player but ended his professional career due to injury. At 18, he borrowed about 10,000 pounds from his family to open his first sports store, selling mass-market brands like Nike and Adidas on a high-volume, low-margin model. This evolved into Sports Direct, which flourished in the 1990s, opening stores in almost all of Britain's second- and third-tier cities. He discovered a more profitable method: own-brand products had much higher margins than agency brands. So, he began acquiring declining sports brands like Lonsdale, Slazenger, and Everlast, reviving them through the Sports Direct channel. In 2007, Sports Direct was listed on the London Stock Exchange with a valuation of about 2.5 billion pounds, making Mike Ashley a British billionaire through the IPO. The Sunday Times Rich List in May this year showed Mike Ashley and his family with assets of 3.44 billion pounds, ranking high in the British fashion and retail rich list. That same year, he also bought the Premier League club Newcastle United, which, despite controversy, boosted his public profile far beyond the retail industry. Leveraging his listed company's influence, he began acquiring retail channels and lifestyle brands. British department store House of Fraser, high-end multi-brand boutique Flannels, Britain's largest game retailer GAME, and British casual wear brand Jack Wills all entered the Frasers system. In 2019, the company was officially renamed Frasers Group, signaling not just an upgrade from a sports retailer but also Mike Ashley's attempt to transform his identity. The British billionaire, who started with discount sports retail, is now targeting the luxury industry, aiming to become a high-end retail group. He has developed a unique acquisition style. While LVMH's Bernard Arnault is skilled at hunting the world's best brands, Mike Ashley looks for the most undervalued brands with potential for revival. Unlike Authentic Brands Group, which simply acquires intellectual property and licensing models, Frasers wants not just investment returns but deep operational influence. To some extent, Frasers is an aggressive industrial investor that never shies away from conflict to achieve its goals. In 2023, Frasers began buying shares in British ultra-fast fashion brand Boohoo, increasing its stake from 5% to 30%. In 2024, it publicly pressured to appoint Mike Ashley as Boohoo's CEO, but faced strong opposition, leading to friction over the board and brand strategy. According to recent British media reports, Frasers not only hopes to complete the Hugo Boss acquisition but also plans to strengthen its control, such as pushing current Frasers CEO Michael Murray to become Hugo Boss's CEO in the future. Michael Murray has already joined Hugo Boss's supervisory board. Mulberry, in which Frasers has invested, has begun to show signs of a performance turnaround. According to the latest financial report, the group's first-quarter revenue surged 23%, with double-digit growth in all regions, drawing widespread market attention. For the fiscal year 2026 ending March, Mulberry's group revenue grew 4%, gross margin improved from 66.8% to 71.9%, pre-tax loss narrowed from 32.2 million pounds to 8.9 million pounds, and EBITDA turned positive again. This performance boost came from the transformation strategy led by CEO Andrea Baldo, which refocused on British leather goods heritage, lowered product prices, and reduced discounts to restore brand appeal. Frasers currently holds 37% of Mulberry's shares. Mike Ashley is not the direct creator of Mulberry's growth, but he captured the brand's potential value ahead of time and could see significant returns on investment. As a major shareholder, he also provided the financial support and market confidence needed for the brand's transformation, creating conditions for further growth. Burberry is in a similar situation to some extent. Under CEO Joshua Schulman's leadership over the past two years, the brand's performance has started to rebound. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, the company's retail revenue increased 5% to 455 million pounds, with comparable retail revenue up 5%, compared to a 1% decline in the same period last year. The Americas market surged 12%, and China sales also grew 9%, with both core markets performing well. However, there is still disagreement in the market about whether Burberry's recovery is short-term or long-term, and Frasers is choosing to bet on the latter. For Frasers, Burberry has irreplaceable strategic value. If it can be integrated into the Frasers system, it would not only fill a gap in the group's high-end brand portfolio but also strengthen its voice in the high-end retail platform. The problem is that, with market confidence recovering, Burberry's stock price has rebounded 80% from last year's low, currently at 12 pounds per share, with a market value of about 4.3 billion pounds. For Mike Ashley, this means Burberry is no longer the severely undervalued target it was last year, and now may not be the best time to acquire. Burberry's stock price has rebounded from last year's low. Compared to directly buying a large number of shares, Frasers chose put options, which are cheaper and more flexible. This is a clear signal that if Burberry's price becomes suitable, Frasers is willing to become a shareholder. This also better suits Frasers' current balance sheet. In fiscal year 2026, the group's net debt increased from 847.5 million pounds to 1.1681 billion pounds, with only 390 million pounds in cash on hand. The Hugo Boss acquisition, valued at about 2 billion euros, has already locked in a significant portion of financing. Adding Burberry's potential acquisition cost of about 4 billion pounds, it would be difficult to cover with operating cash flow alone. Building a position with put options hardly uses cash and is the lowest-cost way to secure a foothold. Mike Ashley almost never chases rising assets but prefers to wait for the market to lose patience again. So, in the coming year, the market should watch not whether Frasers immediately launches a bid, but whether it continues to increase its common stock holdings and whether it seeks board seats. After all, Hugo Boss got to this point step by step. In the current adjustment phase of the European luxury industry, brands that were once out of reach are now becoming acquirable, allowing investors to pick and choose. Of course, independence is one of the most cherished things for luxury brands, especially when facing Frasers, which started as a sports retailer and has a high-profile style. The traditional luxury industry and the brand itself will instinctively resist being acquired. Moreover, Burberry is not Mulberry or Hugo Boss; it has a national brand status in the UK, carrying history and identity. If Mike Ashley, with his grass-roots background, really prepares to launch a bid, the regulatory and public scrutiny will far exceed any previous deal. Burberry's board will likely resist, as the company has always emphasized independence and its global luxury positioning, while Frasers' past image is tied to Sports Direct's discount retailing and aggressive capital operations. The brand culture gap between the two is significant, and it's hard for the board to welcome the deal. Hugo Boss's experience has proven this: even if the offer meets the minimum regulatory threshold, the board and supervisory board chose to publicly oppose it, arguing the offer undervalues the company. If Burberry were the target, the resistance would be even greater. But these obstacles have never been a reason for Mike Ashley to back down; they are more like his typical opening move. He never seeks a clean victory but rather a continuous hunt, keeping options open and waiting for time to be on his side.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10