South Korea's Central Bank Bullish on AI-Driven Semiconductor Supercycle

Deep News
Jul 13

The Bank of Korea issued a report on Monday stating that the global semiconductor market remains supply-constrained, with the current artificial intelligence-fueled supercycle expected to persist for some time, aiming to allay investor fears that the chip cycle has peaked.

In a report submitted to lawmakers, the central bank noted, "Although investment related to AI infrastructure has significantly boosted semiconductor demand, the pace of capacity expansion has been relatively slow," adding that there are no signs yet of a slowdown in the semiconductor industry cycle.

The central bank highlighted that this chip cycle differs from previous ones, with its core driver being the race among major companies to increase investment, based on the anticipation that the proliferation of AI will fundamentally transform the industrial ecosystem.

The Bank of Korea stated, "The current market is dominated by customized chip products such as High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), which face more constraints on capacity expansion than before. The growth and expansion trend of the global semiconductor market is expected to continue for a considerable period."

This report was released against a backdrop of growing market concerns, including fears that companies are over-leveraging to fund AI infrastructure, high industry valuations, and potential oversupply in memory chips, which have triggered sell-offs in major tech stocks.

Shares of South Korean chipmakers Samsung Electronics Co Ltd and SK Hynix Inc have fallen sharply recently. On July 2, Samsung's stock dropped over 9%, while SK Hynix plunged nearly 15%.

Last Tuesday, even after Samsung announced second-quarter operating profit approaching 90 trillion won (approximately $59.9 billion), significantly exceeding market expectations, its shares still fell 7%, and SK Hynix's stock declined 6%.

The Bank of Korea acknowledged, "There are uncertainties regarding the speed, scope, and profitability prospects of AI technology adoption. However, major investment banks such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley generally predict that the global semiconductor market will maintain its high-growth state at least through next year."

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