During the National Day holiday, overseas crude oil markets remained broadly stable. Although intraday volatility was significant, no clear directional trend emerged. US crude oil was relatively weak while Brent was relatively strong, and the domestic market was closed. Talks between the United States and Iran continued, but differences persist. After the domestic market opened, prices moved higher in a choppy fashion, with downstream chemicals posting even more pronounced gains. Against a backdrop of low inventories, oil prices remain firm.

The United States and Iran have held multiple rounds of talks, but Trump is not satisfied. During the National Day holiday, the United States and Iran communicated repeatedly through Qatari intermediaries, but differences remain. According to the latest news, US President Trump stated that he is no longer seeking a deal with Iran. "I don't think that deal is something I really want to do, but they are willing to offer anything to get a ceasefire," Trump said. He added that US Middle East envoy Witkoff has been working to broker the agreement and that "progress is going very well." In fact, the biggest problem currently facing the United States is who actually holds the decision-making power in Iran. Earlier this week, Trump said the biggest problem Washington faces is that during negotiations aimed at ending the conflict, no one knows who is actually in charge of Iran. Iranian officials rejected that claim, saying "the reality is exactly the opposite." Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei pointed to "contradictory positions and confused messaging among US officials."

The United States announced control of the strait, but transit volumes continue to decline. US Central Command: A general of Iran's Revolutionary Guard previously claimed in media reports that "the Strait of Hormuz has been closed" and said Iran "fully controls it." This is false. In fact, commercial goods and energy supplies are currently being transported through the Strait of Hormuz, including 20 million barrels of crude oil. The United States and regional partners clearly control the strait. After tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz last week reached their highest level since the outbreak of the US-Israel conflict with Iran, data from analytics firm Kpler showed that a total of 7 commodity transport vessels passed through the strait on Tuesday, the lowest level since July 23. Two Kpler analysts noted in an October 6 report that crude oil volumes transported through the strait fell 27% from the wartime high the previous week to at least 10.1 million barrels per day, returning to September's average level, equivalent to 74% of pre-war levels, with the decline mainly concentrated in ship-to-ship (STS) transfer activity in the Gulf of Oman. However, the analysts pointed out that exports from the Gulf of Oman coast and the Red Sea rose to an average of 6.7 million barrels per day, more than double pre-war levels, thereby offsetting the gap caused by reduced supply through the Strait of Hormuz, allowing overall Middle East crude oil exports to remain at pre-war levels. Data showed that the number of vessels passing through the strait rebounded slightly to 10 on Wednesday, but remained far below the level of more than 20 per day on Sunday and Monday. Over the past two days, more vessels entered the Strait of Hormuz than exited it. The above data does not include vessels that turned off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders. Therefore, against the backdrop of stalled US-Iran talks, Iran's control over the strait has continued to increase, and during the National Day holiday it accelerated the pace of attacks on commercial vessels, driving shipping freight rates and insurance costs steadily higher. After the market opened today, domestic crude oil and downstream chemical prices rose notably, reflecting capacity cost factors.

US crude oil inventories continue to draw down, and oil prices remain firm. Data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that in the week ending October 2, total US crude oil inventories including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve stood at 707.117 million barrels, down 3.97 million barrels from the previous week; US commercial crude oil inventories were 424.134 million barrels, down 3.186 million barrels from the previous week; total US gasoline inventories were 204.744 million barrels, up 382,000 barrels from the previous week; distillate inventories were 105.138 million barrels, down 42,000 barrels from the previous week; jet fuel inventories were 42.504 million barrels, down 1.108 million barrels from the previous week; and fuel oil inventories were 23.881 million barrels, up 450,000 barrels from the previous week. US petroleum inventories, especially SPR inventories, are at a recent low since 1982, while commercial inventories are at a low level relative to the average of the past five years. The United States and other countries continued to release bearish news about further reserve releases, but after those releases crude oil inventories still drew down and remain at historic lows. Judging from the SPR data, if reserve releases continue, crude oil inventories will become even tighter. Against the backdrop of stalled US-Iran talks, the possibility of US attacks on Iran, and the risk of escalation, with crude oil inventories drawing down, the judgment is maintained that prices will remain firm.