According to a report from ZhiTong Financial APP, in Morgan Stanley's latest report covering the Greater China semiconductor sector, the investment bank has assigned an "Attractive" industry rating to the AI semiconductor supply chain. Among the investable US stock targets, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM.US) is regarded by Morgan Stanley as the beneficiary with the highest certainty, forming a core beneficiary portfolio for AI computing power expansion alongside ACM Research (ACMR.US) and Silicon Motion (SIMO.US).

TSMC with the Strongest Certainty

As the "shovel seller" for AI computing power, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM.US) holds a near-monopoly over two critical segments globally: advanced process nodes and advanced packaging. Morgan Stanley has assigned TSMC an "Overweight" rating with a target price of NT$3,088, implying approximately 21% upside from the current NT$2,550, corresponding to about 22 times the expected 2026 price-to-earnings ratio. The report anticipates that TSMC may raise advanced process wafer prices by 5% to 10% in 2027 — reflecting its irreplaceable pricing power amid the supply-demand imbalance for AI chips. The demand side is equally solid: Morgan Stanley estimates that TSMC's AI semiconductor revenue share will exceed 30% by 2026, with 2nm (N2) capacity expanding at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 70%. With revenue growth diluting capital expenditures, a 60% gross margin is viewed as a "floor" rather than a "ceiling." In the CoWoS advanced packaging segment, Morgan Stanley expects global demand to grow from 689,000 wafers in 2025 to approximately 2.5 million wafers by 2027, with TSMC's CoWoS capacity potentially expanding to 260,000 wafers per month by 2028. Morgan Stanley estimates that TSMC produced approximately 5.1 million AI chips in 2025, with full-year GB200 NVL72 rack shipments expected to reach 30,000 units. Whether GPUs or custom ASICs, all ultimately converge on TSMC's foundry and packaging capacity, making it the "greatest common denominator" of AI computing power expansion.

ACM Research (ACMR.US): Cleaning Equipment Leader, Target Price $115

In the semiconductor equipment segment, Morgan Stanley has assigned ACM Research (ACMR.US) an "Overweight" rating with a target price of $115, implying approximately 62% significant upside from the current $70.8, corresponding to about 25 times the expected 2026 price-to-earnings ratio. As a leading domestic player in cleaning equipment, ACM Research benefits from the dual logic of Chinese domestic wafer fab expansion and localization of advanced process equipment, with 2026 EPS growth projected at 104%.

Silicon Motion (SIMO.US): Storage Controller Chip Leader, Target Price $400

In the storage supply chain, Morgan Stanley has assigned Silicon Motion (SIMO.US) an "Overweight" rating with a target price of $400, implying approximately 53% upside from the current $261.9, corresponding to about 22.8 times the expected 2026 price-to-earnings ratio. As the global leader in NAND storage controller chips, Silicon Motion directly benefits from the NAND shortage and price increase cycle triggered by AI storage demand, with 2026 EPS growth projected to reach as high as 263%.

Himax Technologies (HIMX.US): Display Driver Chips, Neutral Rating

In contrast, Morgan Stanley maintains an "Equal-weight" rating on Himax Technologies (HIMX.US) with a target price of $17.4, implying approximately 31% upside from the current $13.3. As a display driver chip manufacturer, Himax Technologies has relatively weaker AI exposure. While its 65% EPS growth in 2026 is notable, its valuation elasticity falls short of the aforementioned core AI targets.

Clear Ranking of "Certainty" Among US Semiconductor Stocks

Based on Morgan Stanley's rating framework, the certainty ranking of US AI semiconductor targets is quite clear: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM.US) holds the top tier with its dual monopoly in "advanced process plus CoWoS packaging"; ACM Research (ACMR.US) and Silicon Motion (SIMO.US) are positioned in the two high-growth segments of equipment and storage respectively, attracting growth-oriented capital with the highest target price upside; Himax Technologies (HIMX.US) receives a neutral rating due to limited AI exposure. However, Morgan Stanley also flagged concerns: AI semiconductor growth is expected to slow in 2027, with major cloud providers' capital expenditure growth potentially dropping to around 12% in 2028. Nevertheless, at the current juncture, regardless of how technology roadmaps evolve, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM.US), as the "greatest common denominator" of AI computing power, remains the US stock allocation direction with the highest certainty in Morgan Stanley's view.