Are the United States and Iran once again heading into a '60-day cycle'?

According to a memorandum of understanding reached between the US and Iran, the two sides are to engage in a 60-day negotiation period aimed at reaching a final agreement. An analysis from CNN on the 15th pointed out that last year, the US similarly set a 60-day deadline for Iran to conclude a nuclear deal, a move that ultimately led to an Israeli military strike and US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities. Over the past year, US-Iran relations appear to have fallen into a recurring pattern, with the trajectory spiraling downward.

In March 2025, US President Donald Trump sent a letter to then-Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The White House disclosed that the letter demanded Iran reach a nuclear agreement within two months or face severe consequences. Ali Khamenei accused the letter of being an attempt to create a perception that "Iran is refusing to negotiate," stating that Iran would not negotiate under "bullying" and "coercion."

Although indirect talks between the US and Iran resumed in April of that same year, Israel launched a military operation in June, just before a new round of negotiations, triggering what became known as the "War of the 12th Day." During this period, the US bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities. Just over eight months later, the US and Israel jointly initiated a larger-scale military operation, to which Iran retaliated, spreading the conflict to multiple countries across the Middle East.

The CNN report states that Trump, twice prompted by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, used military force against Iran, claiming success each time and inflicting widespread damage on Iran, though some US intelligence agencies have expressed skepticism about these claims. Following the agreement on the memorandum of understanding, Trump has again threatened to resume military strikes against Iran if a final nuclear deal is not reached. This indicates that the "60-day cycle" could potentially repeat itself.

According to the report, one year on, Iran has undoubtedly been weakened, but the US has also suffered losses in four key areas.

The first is the diminished effectiveness of US military deterrence. Although the US military claimed its airstrikes hit over 13,000 targets in Iran, in this asymmetrical conflict, Iran has still demonstrated the capability to disrupt the US and its regional allies using drones, sea mines, and missiles. Simultaneously, the situation around the Strait of Hormuz has driven up international oil prices, leading to economic losses and exposing a vulnerability in the US government's economic position.

The second is the damage to the US relationship with its ally Israel. The report notes that Trump, persuaded by Netanyahu, believed in a quick victory but by June was publicly berating the Israeli leader. Former President Joe Biden faced widespread criticism during his term for his reluctance to restrain Israel's military actions in Gaza. Now, the Trump administration's attempts to limit Israeli military operations in Lebanon represent a surprising reversal.

The third is the setback to the US intention to contain the "Axis of Resistance." On the 7th of this month, following an Israeli airstrike on Hezbollah targets in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, Iran launched a missile strike against Israel. Some analysts point out this is the first time Iran has acted in response to an Israeli attack on another country. Previous clashes were triggered by Israeli strikes on Iran or its overseas consulates, or assassinations carried out within Iran. The report suggests this means Iran is bringing Hezbollah under its protective umbrella, and Iran's strategic confidence has, in fact, reached a peak despite the US and Israeli strikes.

The fourth is the damage to Trump's reputation. The report argues that by initiating a war of his own choosing, Trump has eroded support for him within the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) base and significantly hurt Americans' wallets ahead of the midterm congressional elections. As a result, he now finds himself urgently needing Iran to once again agree to the diplomatic process that he himself interrupted twice with bombings.