Market odds from Kalshi suggest traders believe there is less than a 55% probability that the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) will exceed 3.3% year-on-year, with only a 15% chance of surpassing 3.4%. A consensus forecast from economists surveyed by Dow Jones predicts headline inflation will rise 3.4% year-on-year.

In another contract, Kalshi traders estimate a 47% probability that core inflation, which strips out food and energy, will exceed 2.4% year-on-year, and just an 11% chance of it topping 2.5%. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast July core inflation at 2.5% year-on-year, down from 2.6% in June.

On Saturday, August 8, 2026, a customer was seen carrying a shopping basket in a supermarket in Wilmington, North Carolina, USA. Global food prices edged higher in July, reaching a three-year high, driven by renewed concerns over key grain transport routes and adverse weather conditions in major producing regions.

Prediction market traders anticipate that the July CPI reading will be relatively moderate, falling below the average expectations of Dow Jones economists. Trading probabilities on the Kalshi platform on Monday indicated that the market sees a less than 55% chance of July CPI exceeding 3.3% year-on-year, and only a 15% probability of the inflation data rising above 3.4%. The final outcome of this Kalshi event contract, which corresponds to the July CPI year-on-year figure, will be verified by official data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

For comparison, the Dow Jones survey of economists forecasts headline inflation to rise to 3.4% year-on-year, slightly below the 3.5% reported for June. The CPI measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services, serving as a key reference for the Federal Reserve. Policymakers will use this data to assess the future interest rate path at their September meeting. In June, inflation was 3.5% year-on-year, lower than the Dow Jones market consensus of 3.8%. Driven by a temporary decline in energy prices, June CPI fell 0.4% month-on-month, marking the largest monthly decrease in over six years.

Another Kalshi event contract shows that for core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, there is a 47% probability of a year-on-year increase above 2.4% in July, and only an 11% chance of exceeding 2.5%. The Dow Jones market expectation is for July core CPI to rise 2.5% year-on-year, compared to the previous June figure of 2.6%. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the CPI report on Wednesday morning.